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AUG 5, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
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Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
The biggest development is a court-ordered new Utah congressional map that could make one House race more competitive. The Missouri 3rd District nomination market is not directly affected by these reports. The other item is only loosely related and adds no clear signal. Little direct impact on this Missouri nomination market. The news is about Utah redistricting, so it likely does not change the odds here.
How Utah’s redistricting fight echoes a nationwide battle over congressional representation
An unprecedented gerrymandering effort led by Donald Trump—and internal divisions among Democrats—has made the Minority Leader’s path to victory harder than ever, Jason Zengerle reports.
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
