Race Rating
Safe or unrated
Cook/270toWin 2026
Partisan lean: Safe Republican or unrated
ClosedGeneral Election
2026 Missouri House Election Polls, Odds & Candidates
Election Day: Recorded market close:
MO-04 House winner?
$11.0K
NOV 3, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Race Snapshot
Compare the candidates' saved odds and fundraising. Updated .
| Candidate | Saved odds | Funds raised |
|---|---|---|
| 99% | $1.39M | |
| 3% | $41.7K |
OddsSaved odds
Prices saved with this edition; no automatic updates.
Odds History
Total volume
$11.0K
24h volume
$1.8K
source: Kalshi
Politics IQ
Structural race context from reviewed jurisdiction data
Missouri 4th District · US House
Safe or unratedSafe Republican or unratedDistrict context
Seat Dynamics
Incumbent defense
Incumbent: Mark Alford (R)
Election Rules
Primary Aug 4, 2026
Runoff: No
General: Nov 3, 2026
Sources reviewed May 2, 2026 · Office of the Clerk · 270toWin/Cook · 270toWin · NCSL
Election Dates and Deadlines
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Latest Election News
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
AINews Summary
The biggest development is the Supreme Court blocking Missouri’s GOP-friendly congressional map, leaving the 2022 map likely in place for the 2026 House races. That removes a potential Republican advantage from redistricting. Separately, a whistleblower lawsuit against the secretary of state adds some election-administration uncertainty. Keeping the 2022 map in place likely preserves the current district balance and reduces the chance of a Republican boost from redistricting. The lawsuit adds some election-administration uncertainty, but its direct effect on the race is unclear.
Articles
SSlate2 days ago
This Wasn’t Supposed to Be Senate Democrats’ Year. Here’s What Changed.
The party is in the midst of a remarkable comeback—mostly thanks to one man.
UTUSA TODAY2 days ago
Trump bet on riskier candidates. Will it cost Republicans seats?
The president often picked more loyal but polarizing contenders during the 2026 primary season, now some of them are behind in the polls.
MJMother Jones2 days ago
On Abortion Rights, Nevada Offers a Perfect Snapshot of the Midterms
2026 is all about winning ballot measures, Democratic trifectas, and Congress.
WCWDIV ClickOnDetroit3 months ago
The Latest: Trump says he was taken off Air Force One last month due to threat
President Donald Trump says he slipped away from Air Force One after a trip last month in Turkey because the Secret Service and military wanted him on a “different plane” due to a threat he insisted didn’t scare him.
CNCable News Network7 days ago
How to tell if Democrats are heading for a wave election in the House
House Democrats appear to be flirting with one of the biggest popular vote wins in decades. Follow these races on election night to know how well Democrats are doing.
MPMechanicsburg Patriot News 13 hours ago
2026 midterm elections: What to know about Election Day
Democrats are hoping to take back control of Congress in the 2026 midterm elections as President Donald Trump faces widespread disapproval.
KHKFF Health News2 days ago
A GOP Congressman Backed Medicaid Work Requirements. His Voters Might Be Exempt.
A California congressman voted for the GOP’s One Big Beautiful Bill, which is projected to reduce Medicaid spending by $900 billion. Now Rep. David Valadao, whose House race will help decide control of Congress, is telling his constituents they may not have to follow the new rules.
SSSpokane Spokesman-Review1 month ago
The 10 most vulnerable House members just over a month before Election Day
With less than five weeks to go until the midterm elections, Republicans face historical headwinds as the party in power and must also contend with high gas prices amid the ongoing Iran war.
NNewsweek2 months ago
Democrats’ Chances of Flipping House Get Better in Fox News Forecast
The Fox News forecast shows Democrats gaining momentum in the House race, while 17 toss-up districts could decide control.
FNFox News2 months ago
Trump's congressional redistricting push nets Republicans 10 seats
Donald Trump's redistricting push has netted Republicans at least 10 more right-leaning congressional seats as the GOP fights to hold its House majority ahead of midterm elections.
Campaign Fundraising
Total RaisedCash on Hand
Jul 15, 2026$2M
$1.5M
$1M
$500K
$0
M. Alford
J. Herrera
Candidate
Total Raised
Cash on Hand
Burn Rate (per month)
Last report
M. AlfordMark Alford$1.39MContrib: $1.34M
$747.4KSpent: $864.5K
$45.5KLast period: $16.0K
PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 15, 2026
J. HerreraJordan Herrera$41.7KContrib: $41.4K
$19.4KSpent: $22.7K
$1.2KLast period: $1.9K
PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 15, 2026
Source: FEC
Related Races
Saved Kalshi settlement results
These are market contract results, not election calls or vote totals. News, polls, prices and charts remain as captured.
Observation saved Nov 4, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC. No automatic updates.
MO-04 House winner?
All preserved contracts have verified final results.
Will Democratic win the House race for MO-04?
Final: No
Settled Nov 4, 2026, 3:41 AM UTC
Will Republican win the House race for MO-04?
Final: Yes
Settled Nov 4, 2026, 3:41 AM UTC