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AUG 5, 2026
Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
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Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
The biggest development is a South Carolina redistricting plan that could help Republicans in 2026 House races. It would also shift congressional primaries to August there. The other items are only loosely related and do not provide direct new information on this Missouri GOP nomination contest. Little direct impact on this Missouri nomination market. The redistricting news is broader GOP House context, but it does not change the outlook for MO-07 specifically.
Progressives are fired up, but some districts are still backing centrist Democrats in primaries ahead of the November midterms.
An unprecedented gerrymandering effort led by Donald Trump—and internal divisions among Democrats—has made the Minority Leader’s path to victory harder than ever, Jason Zengerle reports.
Republicans in the South Carolina House are pushing a congressional redistricting plan that could help them gain an additional seat in the November midterm elections.
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
