Race Rating
Safe or unrated
Cook/270toWin 2026
Partisan lean: Safe Democratic or unrated
ClosedGeneral Election
2026 New Mexico House Election Polls, Odds & Candidates
Election Day: Recorded market close:
NM-03 House winner?
$10.1K
NOV 3, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Race Snapshot
Compare the candidates' saved odds and fundraising. Updated .
| Candidate | Saved odds | Funds raised |
|---|---|---|
| 97% | $1.25M | |
| 4% | $440.6K |
OddsSaved odds
Prices saved with this edition; no automatic updates.
Odds History
Total volume
$10.1K
24h volume
$177
source: Kalshi
Politics IQ
Structural race context from reviewed jurisdiction data
New Mexico 3rd District · US House
Safe or unratedSafe Democratic or unratedDistrict context
Seat Dynamics
Incumbent defense
Incumbent: Teresa Leger Fernandez (D)
Election Rules
Primary Jun 2, 2026
Runoff: No
General: Nov 3, 2026
Sources reviewed May 2, 2026 · Office of the Clerk · 270toWin/Cook · 270toWin · NCSL
Election Dates and Deadlines
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Latest Election News
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
AINews Summary
NM-03 is set for a general-election matchup between Democrat Teresa Leger Fernández and Republican Martin Zamora. The district is still described as reliably Democratic, so the market remains tilted toward Democrats. Recent New Mexico House attention has centered more on the competitive NM-02 race. The latest news does not point to a major shift in NM-03. The district’s reliably Democratic profile still favors Democrats, with little new evidence of movement.
Articles
AJAlbuquerque Journal24 hours ago
New Mexico early voting surpasses 2022 turnout as Election Day arrives
New Mexico's early and absentee voting total has surpassed 2022 levels ahead of Election Day, with Democrats and independents casting ballots at higher rates than Republicans.
UTUSA TODAY2 days ago
Trump bet on riskier candidates. Will it cost Republicans seats?
The president often picked more loyal but polarizing contenders during the 2026 primary season, now some of them are behind in the polls.
SSFGATE4 days ago
AP Decision Notes: What to expect in New Mexico on Election Day
New Mexico voters are electing federal and state leaders and other officeholders. The AP Decision Team will use the following key facts and monitor data points as the votes are tallied on Tuesday.
WWTOP4 days ago
AP Decision Notes: What to expect in New Mexico
WASHINGTON (AP) — New Mexico voters will elect leaders for federal, state and other offices on Tuesday. Here are some of the key facts about the election and da
WWTOP4 days ago
AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Florida on Election Day
WASHINGTON (AP) — Florida Republicans will try to extend their dominance in statewide elections Tuesday as voters decide races for Senate, governor and other st
AOArkansas Online12 days ago
Haaland hopeful in N.M. governor race
ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. -- If Deb Haaland wins New Mexico's race for governor this year, she'll make history as the first Native American woman to lead a state.
NNewsweek5 days ago
Trump Cancels Kansas Rally as New Poll Shows Republican Trailing Democrat
Donald Trump has canceled a planned rally in Kansas as polls shows GOP Sen. Roger Marshall trailing his Democratic challenger.
AJAlbuquerque Journal19 days ago
Stansbury, Leger Fernandez lead House races
A Journal Poll finds Democratic Reps. Melanie Stansbury and Teresa Leger Fernandez leading Republican challengers in New Mexico’s 1st and 3rd Congressional District races.
NNewsweek1 month ago
Donald Trump’s ‘Donroe Doctrine’ Faces Biggest Test Yet in Brazil
Brazilians vote Sunday in an election that could test Trump's push to reshape Latin America.
WCWDIV ClickOnDetroit3 months ago
The Latest: Trump says he was taken off Air Force One last month due to threat
President Donald Trump says he slipped away from Air Force One after a trip last month in Turkey because the Secret Service and military wanted him on a “different plane” due to a threat he insisted didn’t scare him.
Campaign Fundraising
Total RaisedCash on Hand
Jun 30, 2026$2M
$1.5M
$1M
$500K
$0
T. Fernandez
M. Zamora
Candidate
Total Raised
Cash on Hand
Burn Rate (per month)
Last report
T. FernandezTeresa Leger Fernandez$1.25MContrib: $1.23M
$667.0KSpent: $990.9K
$55.0KLast period: $123.1K
JULY QUARTERLY · Jun 30, 2026
M. ZamoraMartin Zamora$440.6KContrib: $440.6K
$242.6KSpent: $198.1K
$11.0KLast period: $7.1K
JULY QUARTERLY · Jun 30, 2026
Source: FEC
Related Races
Saved Kalshi settlement results
These are market contract results, not election calls or vote totals. News, polls, prices and charts remain as captured.
Observation saved Nov 4, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC. No automatic updates.
NM-03 House winner?
All preserved contracts have verified final results.
Will Democratic win the House race for NM-03?
Final: Yes
Settled Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC
Will Republican win the House race for NM-03?
Final: No
Settled Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC