$18.9K
NOV 3, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
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Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Aug 14, 2026, 5:23 PM UTC.
source: Kalshi
Compare the candidates' live odds and fundraising. Updated .
| Candidate | Live odds | Funds raised |
|---|---|---|
| 72% | $4.30M | |
| 32% | $1.51M |
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Key developments affecting the candidates, polls and prediction market odds.
AP reported Marcy Kaptur was treated for non-life-threatening injuries after a car accident in Toledo, giving the OH-09 rematch a new news catalyst while her market remains sharply repriced higher on the day. ([apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/a5d45b9bd793c6f605fea4a7bd6c28a2?utm_source=openai))
Marcy Kaptur's odds are now 91%, above the previous high of 65%.
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
The biggest recent development is NRCC backing for Republican nominee Derek Merrin in Ohio’s 9th District. Merrin has already secured the GOP nomination and will face Marcy Kaptur in November. Coverage also says the district is a toss-up under a new map drawn to favor Republicans. NRCC support and the new map may modestly improve Republican sentiment, but the race is still described as a toss-up. Overall uncertainty remains high.
A new poll showed a close race in the Republican-leaning state ahead of the midterms.
Ohio's primary election set up two marquee matchups in November.
Emily Moreno sued the Ohio Republican and his attorney, alleging that they “recklessly published” a nude image of Miller’s 2-year-old daughter online.
David Crowley beats Francesca Hong in Wisconsin’s Democratic primary for governor. An Iranian plot to kill Donald Trump triggered his secret plane swap,
By JULIE CARR SMYTH COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — Republican Vivek Ramaswamy has spent his campaign for Ohio governor focused on November’s general election and finally gets the chance Tuesday to put the long primary season behind him, as the Trump-endorsed biotech entrepreneur positions for an expensive run against Dr. Amy Acton, the former state health […]
WASHINGTON (AP) — Candidates for Ohio’s top elected offices will stand before voters in a statewide primary on Tuesday, although many of them are already looking ahead to the November general election.
Erie County Treasurer Caleb Stidham was tapped as the Republican nominee to face Democrat Easton Retzke in November in the safely Republican House District 89.
In a number of key battlegrounds, Republicans think they've found a potent culture-war issue.
Ohio voters headed to the polls last week for primary elections, and in competitive districts like the one where Toledo is primarily located, the message was clear: affordability is a top priority.
The self-described “Trump conservative” finished third in the battleground district primary.
Polling results and averages based on polls published between Apr 18, 2026 and Apr 20, 2026.
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
Campaign finance totals for the 2026 cycle, including money raised, spent and cash on hand.
M. KapturMarcy KapturD. MerrinDerek MerrinSource: FEC
