$51.1K
NOV 3, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
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Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Oct 25, 2026, 3:28 AM UTC.
source: Kalshi
Compare the candidates' live odds, polling averages and fundraising. Updated .
| Candidate | Live odds | Poll average | Funds raised |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90% | 47.0% | $719.5K | |
| 12% | 40.5% | $2.60M |
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
Charlie Hatcher won the Republican nomination in Tennessee's 5th District, defeating incumbent Andy Ogles. Trump then endorsed Hatcher for the general election against Democrat Chaz Molder. The district has been redrawn and now includes mostly new territory. Hatcher's Trump endorsement may strengthen the Republican hold on the seat, but the redrawn district adds uncertainty. The market likely still leans Republican, with some added volatility from the new map.
U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn will likely be Tennessee's next governor. But for the first time in decades, there's could be a path to victory outside the GOP.
The primaries provided the first test of a House map redrawn after the Supreme Court weakened Voting Rights Act protections for minorities.
Plus, Blackburn hosts a policy summit and Cohen endorses Molder in the 5th Congressional District.
David Valadao (R-Calif.) finds himself in a toss-up race to hang onto his seat while facing a heavy opposition from national Democrats plotting to pluck seats from the Golden State.
By JONATHAN J. COOPER and STEVE PEOPLES WASHINGTON (AP) — Is there a future in politics for Republicans who cross President Donald Trump? The signs this year suggest no, and Trump has convinced his voters to defeat his adversaries again and again. The next test of the president’s power to extract retribution is on Tuesday, […]
President Donald Trump made his endorsement public on Truth Social the day after Blackburn defeated U.S. Rep. John Rose in the GOP primary.
Ogles's loss was the second GOP candidate whom President Donald Trump had endorsed to lose their primary race this week.
MEMPHIS -- Tennessee primary voters picked a pair of Memphis-area lawmakers Thursday to square off in a dramatically reconfigured U.S. House seat that is central to President Donald Trump's plan to try to hold on to a slim Republican majority in the midterm congressional elections.
By David Wright, Katie Doran, CNN (CNN) — Memphis City Councilmember Jerri Green will win Tennessee’s Democratic primary for governor, CNN’s Decision Desk projects. Thursday’s primaries will set the general election matchup in a race for governor in the deep-red state as well as House races being run under a new Republican-drawn congressional map aimed
A new Tennessee congressional map that carved up a majority Black district in Memphis is making its debut in primary elections Tuesday. Voters are picking nominees in the new 9th Congressional...
Polling results and averages based on polls published between Aug 19, 2026 and Oct 1, 2026.
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
Campaign finance totals for the 2026 cycle, including money raised, spent and cash on hand.
C. MolderChaz MolderC. HatcherCharlie HatcherSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
