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MAY 26, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Doug Jones briefly traded as high as 10% before falling back to about 1.3%, while fresh local coverage still points to Kyle Sweetser and Dakarai Larriett as the main primary contenders. That makes the move look more like short-lived trading noise than a durable shift in the nomination race.
Over the 4-day streak, Kyle Sweetser’s odds are up 6.5 points to 71% in the Alabama Democratic Senate nominee race.
Alabama’s primary elections took place Tuesday, including the U.S. Senate primary. Some House primaries were pushed to August after court-ordered redistricting changes. The reporting mainly highlights the broader redistricting fight, not a clear shift in the Senate nomination race. The Senate nomination market appears mostly unchanged from these reports. The main effect is broader election context, while the delayed House races and redistricting add some background uncertainty.
Two weeks after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down Louisiana's congressional map, state senators on Thursday are to consider a plan that would eliminate a majority-Black district while giving Republicans a chance to win an additional seat in the November midterm elections.
Alabama voters will choose nominees for U.S. Senate, governor and a full slate of state and local offices.
Six states are holding primaries May 19 that could help to decide the balance of power in Congress and in key state governments.
Republicans’ post-Callais gerrymandering blitz appears to be winding down. The midterms damage to Democrats could have been worse. But Trump may not be through with his redistricting push.
So far, his chosen candidates in several May primaries are struggling to dominate their fields.
Tennessee lawmakers have passed a new U.S. House map that carves up a majority-Black district in Memphis. The new voting districts approved Thursday could give Republicans a chance to win all nine of the state’s congressional seats in the November midterm elections.
Alabama voters will choose nominees for U.S. Senate, governor and a full slate of state and local offices.
In the wake of the Supreme Court decision hollowing the Voting Rights Act, Louisiana, Alabama, and Tennessee are looking to change their electoral maps.
The order expedites the state’s redistricting process, which could grant the GOP an additional House seat.
K. SweetserKyle Sweetser
D. LarriettDakarai Larriett
M. WheelerMark WheelerSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
