$14.3K
SEP 1, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
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Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Aug 18, 2026, 9:53 AM UTC.
source: Kalshi
Compare the candidates' live odds and fundraising. Updated .
| Candidate | Live odds | Funds raised |
|---|---|---|
| 96% | $38 | |
| 7% | — | |
| 7% | — |
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
Recent coverage is mostly about the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary, not the Republican nomination market. Markey won the party convention, and the primary is still scheduled for September 1. The summaries do not report any new development in the Republican field. The Republican nomination market appears unchanged from these summaries, with no new GOP candidate entry, exit, or endorsement reported. Most of the actionable news is on the Democratic side and does not clearly move the Republican nominee race.
A House candidate in South Florida has a Democratic Socialists of America endorsement, while others are trying to win with progressive, outsider messaging.
A new poll on the Massachusetts U.S. Senate race finds incumbent Sen. Ed Markey leading U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton by nearly 30 points in the month ahead of the Sept. 1 primary.
The narrower than expected victory by the far left Democratic Senate candidate in Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, could backfire on the party in November. El-Sayed barely staved off the establishment Democrat by less than one percentage point — just 15,000 votes — despite polls which showed him leading by double digits.
Minnesota Democrats will decide a competitive U.S. Senate primary Tuesday in another face-off between moderate and progressive candidates that could define the party’s identity heading into the...
Josh Turek and Zach Wahls, the Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate, made their final pitches as voters took to the polls on Tuesday.
This year’s US Senate primary has largely hummed to at a lower wattage despite some signs it’s starting to heat up.
The Democratic primary for governor in Wisconsin was neck-and-neck early Wednesday morning, with democratic socialist state lawmaker Francesca Hong and moderate Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley separated by less than a percentage point.
Sen. Ed Markey, D-Mass., and Rep. Seth Moulton, D-Mass., are set to meet on the debate stage for the first time on July 8.
Republicans hold few competitive seats in New York, which makes each district a possibly critical pickup to expand the slim House majority.
Following his absence from the state's first-ever interparty primary debate between Senate challengers Republican John Deaton and fellow Democrat Rep. Seth Moulton, Sen. Ed Markey addressed his opponents' claims and shots at him in a segment Sunday.
Campaign finance totals for the 2026 cycle, including money raised, spent and cash on hand.
J. DeatonJohn DeatonSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
