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Who will win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican Primary?

Aug 5, 2026, 3:59am UTC, in 50 daysLast updated: Jun 16, 2026, 4:23 PM UTC

Michigan Republican Governor nominee?

$272.9K

AUG 5, 2026

Primary Election

Party selects its nominee.

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OddsCurrent Odds

Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.

Total volume

$272.9K

24h volume

$10.3K

J. James64%

M. Cox22%

P. Johnson17%

Loading chart data...

source: Kalshi

Upcoming Events

August

TUE 4

Michigan 2026 primary

November

TUE 3

Michigan 2026 general election

Latest Insights

Michigan Republican Governor nominee?

Cox’s contract jumped intraday from 2% to 14%, keeping him in the top tier and forcing traders to reprice the Michigan Republican field.

14%12%

Michigan Republican Governor nominee?

11h

Perry Johnson's odds are now 17%, below the previous low of 35%.

17%18%

Michigan Republican Governor nominee?

Perry Johnson is now at 55% and leads by 11.0 points in the Michigan Republican governor nomination race.

55%

News

AINews Summary

New polling shows Jocelyn Benson ahead of John James in the Michigan governor race, marking a shift from earlier Republican strength. Reports also say Michigan Republicans face a harder political environment and internal divisions. The race is still considered competitive. The polling trend and tougher GOP environment likely weaken Republican sentiment in the broader governor race. But the contest is still competitive, so uncertainty remains high.

Articles

WEWashington Examiner3 days ago

Schumer says Democrats are 'poised to take the Senate'

Schumer’s optimism comes as Democrats navigate high-profile Senate races that could determine control of the upper chamber.

WWIS101 month ago

Trump flexes control over Republican Party: Takeaways from elections in Indiana, Ohio and Michigan

President Donald Trump is having some success in his latest attempt to politically punish Republicans who stand in his way.

NNNBC News12 days ago

Live updates: Trump to nominate Todd Blanche for attorney general

Get live updates and the latest news as Trump plans to nominate Todd Blanche for attorney general and the Senate begins voting on amendments to ICE and Border Patrol funding.

TBThe Boston Globe14 days ago

What to watch in Tuesday’s primaries as Democrats try to defend California and make inroads in Iowa

Here are some things to watch as voters in California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota cast ballots.

YDYork Daily Record9 days ago

The Republicans who rejected 2020 election result running for governor

Many Republicans who supported President Donald Trump's effort to overturn his 2020 loss are now running for governor of their state.

TNThe New Yorker1 month ago

Can the Democrats Take Back the Senate?

Amy Davidson Sorkin on Josh Turek, Zach Wahls, Sherrod Brown, and James Talarico—and how something has changed lately in the dynamics of the Democrats’ fight to reclaim the Senate, or, at least, in the Party’s mood.

NNewsweek1 month ago

Democrats' Chances of Beating GOP In Michigan Governor Race Soar: Charts

New polling shows Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson opening a lead in a race that was far tighter just months ago.

WCWDIV ClickOnDetroit1 month ago

Republicans once saw Michigan as ripe for a takeover, but the mood is shifting

Michigan Republicans once viewed 2026 as their best chance to reclaim power in the battleground state.

WEWashington Examiner2 months ago

wing nominees could cost 2026 midterms

Democrats worry nominees like Graham Platner in Maine could jeopardize winnable Senate races, even as the party eyes a favorable 2026 map.

Polls

Polling Average

40%30%20%10%0%

30.1%

21.6%

13.0%

5.5%

J. James

P. Johnson

M. Cox

A. Nesbitt

T. Leonard

Date (Start - End)	Spread	James	Johnson	Cox	Nesbitt	Leonard
Polling Average	James+8.4	30.1%	21.6%	13.0%	5.5%	2.3%
Strategic NationalJun 10 - 14	Johnson+2.7	23.8%	26.5%	12.4%	5.9%	–
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsJun 11 - 13	James+1.0	28.0%	23.0%	27.0%	4.0%	–
Tarrance GroupJun 1 - 4	James+12.0	38.0%	26.0%	22.0%	12.0%	–
TIPP InsightsMay 20 - 23	James+11.0	31.0%	19.0%	20.0%	3.0%	–
1892 PollingMay 12 - 14	James+1.0	24.0%	23.0%	7.0%	7.0%	–
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsMay 1 - 7	James+9.0	32.0%	23.0%	19.0%	7.0%	–
Glengariff GroupApr 24 - 24	James+17.2	37.0%	19.8%	9.9%	6.9%	2.6%
OnMessageApr 15 - 18	James+23.0	41.0%	18.0%	7.0%	5.0%	–
Emerson CollegeApr 11 - 13	Johnson+1.2	20.2%	21.4%	10.2%	2.8%	3.7%
1892 PollingMar 25 - 26	James+5.0	26.0%	21.0%	6.0%	4.0%	1.0%
JMC AnalyticsMar 21 - 23	James+3.0	23.0%	20.0%	6.0%	5.0%	3.0%
OnMessageMar 16 - 19	James+18.0	37.0%	19.0%	10.0%	4.0%	1.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Fundraising

Total RaisedCash on Hand

Mar 31, 2026

$10M

$7.5M

$5M

$2.5M

M. Rogers

L. McClain

J. James

P. Meijer

Candidate

Total Raised

Cash on Hand

Burn Rate (per month)

Last report

M. RogersMike Rogers

$7.62MContrib: $5.16M

$4.21MSpent: $3.67M

$244.7KLast period: $1.75M

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

L. McClainLisa McClain

$4.29MContrib: $3.36M

$1.30MSpent: $3.60M

$240.0KLast period: $713.4K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

J. JamesJohn James

$554.4KContrib: $264.3K

$0Spent: $1.29M

$107.4KLast period: $0

TERMINATION REPORT · Dec 23, 2025

P. MeijerPeter Meijer

$0Contrib: $0

$10.9KSpent: $0

$0Last period: $0

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

Endorsements

Who will win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican Primary?

Michigan Republican Governor nominee?

OddsCurrent Odds

Upcoming Events

Latest Insights

Michigan Republican Governor nominee?

Michigan Republican Governor nominee?

Michigan Republican Governor nominee?

News

Schumer says Democrats are 'poised to take the Senate'

Trump flexes control over Republican Party: Takeaways from elections in Indiana, Ohio and Michigan

Live updates: Trump to nominate Todd Blanche for attorney general

What to watch in Tuesday’s primaries as Democrats try to defend California and make inroads in Iowa

The Republicans who rejected 2020 election result running for governor

Can the Democrats Take Back the Senate?

Democrats' Chances of Beating GOP In Michigan Governor Race Soar: Charts

Republicans once saw Michigan as ripe for a takeover, but the mood is shifting

wing nominees could cost 2026 midterms

Polls

Fundraising

Related races

Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?

Michigan Governor winner?

Michigan Senate winner?

Michigan Democratic Governor nominee?

Upcoming Events

Latest Insights

Michigan Republican Governor nominee?

Michigan Republican Governor nominee?

Michigan Republican Governor nominee?

News

Schumer says Democrats are 'poised to take the Senate'

Trump flexes control over Republican Party: Takeaways from elections in Indiana, Ohio and Michigan

Live updates: Trump to nominate Todd Blanche for attorney general

What to watch in Tuesday’s primaries as Democrats try to defend California and make inroads in Iowa

The Republicans who rejected 2020 election result running for governor

Can the Democrats Take Back the Senate?

Democrats' Chances of Beating GOP In Michigan Governor Race Soar: Charts

Republicans once saw Michigan as ripe for a takeover, but the mood is shifting

wing nominees could cost 2026 midterms

Polls

Fundraising

Related races

Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?

Michigan Governor winner?

Michigan Senate winner?

Michigan Democratic Governor nominee?