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High Impact5m

25%96%

Abdul El-Sayed’s nominee odds jumped from 71% to 96% in the past hour, extending a sharp post-debate repricing that traders should watch for follow-through before Tuesday’s primary.

ActivePrimary ElectionDemocratic

Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic Primary?

Aug 5, 2026, 3:59am UTC, in 5 daysLast updated: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC

Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?

$6.0M

AUG 5, 2026

Primary Election

Party selects its nominee.

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OddsCurrent Odds

Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.

Total volume

$6.0M

24h volume

$627.5K

A. El-Sayed97%

H. Stevens4%

M. McMorrow0%

No chart data available yet.

source: Kalshi

Upcoming Events

August

TUE 4

Michigan 2026 primary

November

TUE 3

Michigan 2026 general election

Latest Insights

Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?

5mHigh Impact

Abdul El-Sayed’s nominee odds jumped from 71% to 96% in the past hour, extending a sharp post-debate repricing that traders should watch for follow-through before Tuesday’s primary.

96%25%

News

AINews Summary

Abdul El-Sayed drew support from AOC and Bernie Sanders in Michigan, while his campaign continues to frame the race around Michigan issues and progressive themes. Haley Stevens still has Sen. Gary Peters’ endorsement and backing from outside groups, keeping the primary tightly contested. The new high-profile support for El-Sayed may strengthen his standing, but Stevens still has establishment backing and outside spending behind her. Overall, the race remains competitive and uncertain.

Articles

BNBreitbart News Network2 days ago

Republican Mike Rogers Holds Double

Former Rep. Mike Rogers holds a double-digit lead over progressive Abdul El-Sayed and is tied with Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI).

BNBreitbart News Network1 day ago

Sayed Joined BLM Protests While Backed COVID Lockdowns

Abdul El-Sayed defended joining 2020 BLM protests as a “public health intervention” while supporting sweeping COVID policies.

TAThe Associated Press14 hours ago

Democratic candidates grapple with 'defund the police' baggage

Democrats are trying to convince voters that lawlessness under President Donald Trump is a major threat.

NNewsweek2 days ago

Republicans Handed Worrisome Signs in New North Carolina Senate Poll

The Tar Heel State's contest is critical, as it will likely help determine control of the U.S. Senate.

NYNew York Post1 day ago

Young Democrats' radicalism threatens to doom party in midterms

Democrats will soon have a verdict on just how much their precious enthusiasm is worth outside of the confines of deep blue cities and low-turnout primary contests.

TNThe New York Times1 day ago

For Fame, Press 1. For Infamy, Press 2.

Fauci and the D.S.A. have a lot to answer for.

FNFox News1 day ago

Michigan Democrats are betting big on socialism - and America may pay the price

Abdul El-Sayed's Michigan Senate bid draws support from Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, raising concerns about socialism's spread in a key battleground state.

BNBreitbart News Network4 days ago

Rogers Is 'One of the Best' GOP Senate Candidates

President Donald Trump lauded Michigan Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers as "one of the best candidates" the GOP has this cycle.

ESEUROPE SAYS4 days ago

Trump visiting Metro Detroit on Monday as Gordie Howe Bridge prepares to welcome travelers

President Donald Trump will be in Oakland County on Monday to promote his economic plan, including the latest round of tariffs he plans to enact against U.S.

WCWDIV ClickOnDetroit3 days ago

Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens both campaigned in Detroit -- Here’s a look at how it went

Michigan’s Democratic U.S. Senate primary between Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens is drawing national attention and national money, as tens of millions of dollars in outside spending pours into a race that could influence the direction of the Democratic Party in Michigan and beyond.

Polls

Polling Average

60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

48.3%

38.5%

A. El-Sayed

H. Stevens

Date (Start - End)	Spread	El-Sayed	Stevens
Polling Average	El-Sayed+9.7	48.3%	38.5%
SoCal StrategiesJul 28 - 30	El-Sayed+17.0	56.0%	39.0%
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsJul 28 - 29	El-Sayed+14.0	52.0%	38.0%
Emerson CollegeJul 26 - 27	El-Sayed+16.3	57.1%	40.8%
Tavern ResearchJul 26 - 27	El-Sayed+10.0	46.0%	36.0%
Tavern ResearchJul 26 - 27	El-Sayed+11.0	48.0%	37.0%
Tulchin ResearchJul 13 - 15	El-Sayed+16.0	56.0%	40.0%
Data for ProgressJul 10 - 14	El-Sayed+13.0	54.0%	41.0%
Glengariff GroupJul 8 - 11	Stevens+7.0	41.0%	48.0%
Tavern ResearchJul 6 - 7	Stevens+1.0	41.0%	42.0%
Tavern ResearchJul 6 - 7	El-Sayed+3.0	41.0%	38.0%
Quantus InsightsJun 29 - 30	El-Sayed+5.4	41.0%	35.6%
Tulchin ResearchJun 24 - 28	El-Sayed+19.0	46.0%	27.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

Abdul El-Sayed

Bernie Sanders

Bernie Sanders endorsed Abdul El-Sayed for the 2026 Michigan Senate race.

Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic Primary?

Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?

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