$42.8K
NOV 7, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
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Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Oct 22, 2026, 7:58 PM UTC.
source: Kalshi
Compare the candidates' live odds. Updated .
| Candidate | Live odds |
|---|---|
| 68% | |
| 31% |
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
The biggest new item is Trump’s nomination of Wesley Hunt as ambassador to Saudi Arabia. Hunt had finished third in the Texas Republican Senate primary, and the nomination now goes to the Senate for confirmation. The news is indirect for this market and does not clearly shift the lieutenant governor contest. This is only a limited signal for the lieutenant governor market. It may slightly reduce attention on Hunt as a future Texas GOP figure, but it does not directly change the race.
Ken Paxton and James Talarico are tied at 49% in the Texas Senate race, according to a new Fox News poll. Hispanic voters swing back toward Democrats by 30 points.
The economy and the war in Iran emerged as dominant debate topics in critical races in Michigan, Kansas and Wisconsin.
Uncloseted Media and The 19th analyzed nearly 200 X posts and found how anti-trans talking points against the Democratic Senate candidate in Texas spread rapidly after his primary win.
President Donald Trump will hold a midterm rally in Lubbock on Oct. 27 to support U.S. Senate candidate Ken Paxton. Here's what we know.
The liberal justice says the conservative majority’s rulings have weakened democracy. Here’s how those decisions affect the midterms—and what Congress could do in response.
Some Republicans have expressed concern about Trump visits, but polls show his rallies haven’t hurt Paxton against Talarico.
Several stars of the former hit television series Friday Night Lights have backed James Talarico for Senator in Texas as the midterms loom.
Before you head to the polls for the Texas midterms, you can see your sample ballot to find out what you will be voting on.
After the president pushed the state to redraw its congressional districts, the decisions made in South Texas are haunting Republicans.
President Donald Trump will make his fourth trip to Texas ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, holding rallies in Lubbock and Waco on Oct. 27.
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
