$1.1M
NOV 3, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
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Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Aug 19, 2026, 1:23 AM UTC.
source: Kalshi
Compare the candidates' live odds, polling averages and fundraising. Updated .
| Candidate | Live odds | Poll average | Funds raised |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52% | 45.7% | $2.96M | |
| 49% | 44.0% | $5.27M |
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Key developments affecting the candidates, polls and prediction market odds.
Monica De La Cruz is now at 52% and leads by 8.0 points in TX-15.
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
Bobby Pulido is leaning into a centrist Democratic message while campaigning to flip Texas’s 15th District. Recent reporting also suggests Rep. Monica De La Cruz is worried about her reelection prospects, but Pulido has faced some scrutiny that could complicate his bid. The latest reports keep the race looking competitive and may modestly help Democrats if Pulido’s centrist positioning broadens his appeal. The scrutiny around Pulido adds some uncertainty, so the market signal is mixed.
I know y’all would probably rather not talk about the Republican candidates for governor of Florida.However, distasteful as it is, we must: The primary is Aug. 18.Now, this family-friendly publication frowns on scatological language, so let’s just call the campaign unseemly.Undignified. Unedifying. ...
Get live updates and the latest news as Karoline Leavitt says she will depart as Trump’s White House press secretary and Tuesday’s primaries reveal Democratic divisions.
Republicans maintain a narrow House majority, controlling 218 seats, while Democrats hold 212.
You’re going to be hearing a lot more about Darializa Avila Chevalier.
Tejano singer Bobby Pulido will win the Democratic primary for Texas' 15th Congressional District, defeating emergency room physician Ada Cuellar.
‘I hate to be explaining every single thing,’ said the Tejano singer and DCCC darling about controversial social media comments and his past work relationship with a sex offender.
“We are capitalist, not socialist,” a group of 15 Democrats wrote after signing a pledge onto a new centrist initiative.
New York’s insurgents are getting the headlines. But in swing districts, the establishment is getting its way.
WASHINGTON — Another month, and another batch of rating changes that benefit Democrats. But the House Republican majority is not lost yet, according to a district-by-district analysis of the House battleground. With less than five months to go, the fundamentals of midterm elections continue to favor Democrats. President Donald Trump’s job rating is underwater at 39% approve and 58% disapprove, ...
In a shocking revelation that rocked the Texas 15th Congressional District race, Latin Grammy-winning singer turned Democrat candidate Bobby Pulido was caught on tape bragging about helping his longtime bandmate—a convicted child sex offender—get out of jail. While Pulido’s campaign attempts to dismiss the surfacing of his own words as a “desperate smear,” the audio confirms the candidate boasted about his efforts to bail out accordionist Frankie Caballero, a man later imprisoned for the sexual assault of an eight-year-old girl. | Border / Cartel Chronicles
Polling results and averages based on polls published between Sep 10, 2025 and Jul 27, 2026.
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
Campaign finance totals for the 2026 cycle, including money raised, spent and cash on hand.
M. CruzMonica De La CruzB. PulidoBobby PulidoSource: FEC
