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NOV 3, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
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Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Aug 22, 2026, 5:08 PM UTC.
source: Kalshi
Compare the candidates' live odds. Updated .
| Candidate | Live odds |
|---|---|
| 63% | |
| 41% |
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Key developments affecting the candidates, polls and prediction market odds.
New Texas reporting on a second screwworm case and ongoing data-center backlash is keeping the agriculture commissioner race in the news, which could matter for Clayton Tucker’s visibility even though his market has held at 0.36 over the last hour.
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
The biggest Texas development is in the U.S. Senate race, where Paxton is pushing for more money as Talarico leads in some polls and outspends him on ads. Cook has also shifted the race to toss up. Trump and Musk-linked support could help Paxton, but the race looks more competitive than before. The Texas Senate news points to a more competitive Republican race and may weaken GOP confidence. It could also lift uncertainty around Texas statewide Republican strength more broadly.
The Texas Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico is now a toss-up, and Paxton may finally get some much-needed cash via Trump and Elon Musk.
Gallagher has been a vocal critic of the redrawn California's First Congressional District, and said Thursday that states should attempt to keep communities of interest whole, against political pressures, and that "no one knows this better than us in the north state."
Election deniers in key offices could exacerbate the ongoing crisis of electoral confidence since 2020, Vox correspondent Zack Beauchamp writes.
Major projects that aim to move and consume large amounts of electricity have rural voters turning against Texas Gov. Greg Abbott.
A Missouri judge ruled the state's GOP-backed congressional map remains in effect for the 2026 midterms, handing Donald Trump and Republicans a major redistricting victory.
President Donald Trump, speaking alongside cryptocurrency leaders at the White House this week, made a statement that Republican and Democratic candidates alike wouldn’t touch with a 10-foot pole.
President Donald Trump has voiced strong support for AI and data centers, emphasizing their economic benefits and importance in the global AI race. Candidates in competitive midterm elections,...
President Donald Trump has voiced strong support for AI and data centers, emphasizing their economic benefits and importance in the global AI race.
A few recent losses for Trump-endorsed politicians are hardly a sea change, but they do complicate the president’s narrative.
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
