$45.1M
NOV 7, 2028Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
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Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Fresh Emerson polling shows Marco Rubio and JD Vance essentially even, reinforcing the market’s two-way 2028 Republican nominee race and giving traders a concrete reason to watch for another rotation at the top.
Ron DeSantis is at 4.6% for the 2028 Republican presidential nominee, and the endorsement comes from Donald Trump.
Fresh AP reporting says Trump is still publicly comparing JD Vance and Marco Rubio as 2028 GOP successors, and Vance’s high-profile briefing-room appearance keeps that two-man race at the center of attention. That matters because the market is already concentrated in Vance and Rubio, so renewed Trump signaling can still affect relative pricing.
Trump is reportedly questioning whether JD Vance is the best heir to his political movement, even as he praises Marco Rubio. Early polling still has Vance and Rubio near the top, but the coverage highlights concerns around Vance inside and outside Trump’s circle. The race remains early and unsettled. The news slightly weakens Vance’s apparent lead and may help Rubio’s standing. It also adds some uncertainty to the early 2028 Republican field.
In today’s edition, we take stock of President Donald Trump’s retribution campaign this month as Ken Paxton and James Talarico look ahead to the general election in Texas.
Texas Republicans chose a candidate who embodies something essential about the party under Trump.
Plus, Ferrari’s first fully electric car. Here’s the latest at the end of Tuesday.
Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass is running for reelection after a tough first term. Bass says even though she hasn't been perfect she is the right person to continue to lead the city.
Political observers in Michigan say Whitmer's fortunes changed after President Donald Trump's return to office.
In recent conversations with aides and allies, President Donald Trump often interjects with a question about his vice president: Does JD Vance have what it takes to go all the way?
Stephen Miller and Nicolle Wallace have something in common.
Paxton, whom Trump endorsed, defeated Cornyn by over 27 points, taking the runoff race with 63.8% of the vote.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is touting President Trump's endorsement ahead of his Republican primary runoff against Sen. John Cornyn.
Democrats face major challenges heading into the 2028 presidential election, Republican pollster Jim McLaughlin told Newsmax Friday, arguing their current field of potential candidates is weak, but praising the strength of a Republican bench full of prospects.
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
