Texas Senate winner?
2dJames Talarico is now the front-runner at 53%, with a 5.0-point lead in the "Texas Senate winner?" race.
53%
Democrat
James Talarico
Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in Texas
$8.3M
NOV 8, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Live Odds
Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.
James Talarico is trading at 52% to win the Texas Senate winner? on prediction markets.
Candidate Overview
Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.
Current roleState Representative
PartyDemocratic
Political ideologyProgressive Democrat
Age37 years old (May 17, 1989)
GenderMale
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LocationTexas
BackgroundPolitician
EducationB.A., Government, The University of Texas at Austin (2011)
Notable personal detailsJames Dell Talarico is an American politician, former public school teacher, and educator serving in the Texas House of Representatives (District 50) after first being elected in 2018. He previously taught middle-school English in San Antonio and later worked in education-focused nonprofit leadership. He earned degrees from the University of Texas at Austin and Harvard University and has pursued theological training at Austin Presbyterian Theological Seminary.
SourcesShowHide
house.texas.govlrl.texas.goven.wikipedia.orgwikidata.orgjamestalarico.comcommons.wikimedia.orgimdb.comfr.wikipedia.orgcapitol.texas.govtxdirectory.comfamousbirthdays.comapp7.vocusgr.comgovinfo.govnewtools.cira.state.tx.ustxroundtable.comes.wikipedia.orgtexaspolitics.comlatimes.comdallasnews.commysanantonio.comnews.yahoo.comtexastribune.orgballotready.orgcommunityimpact.comgivegreen.comopen.pluralpolicy.comlegiscan.comfortune.comjustfacts.votesmart.orgteachthevote.orgnypost.comchristianpost.comapnews.comcommondefense.ushrc.orghoustonchronicle.comourrevolution.comtexasaflcio.orgnytimes.comnotus.orgnpr.orgfox7austin.comthetexan.newsnbcnews.compbs.orgtexasscorecard.comkvue.comfoxnews.comforbes.comelpasotimes.comyoutube.comtexasmonthly.comsacurrent.comdeveloper.ballotpedia.orghistory.house.govlegislation.ballotpedia.orgdata.ballotpedia.orgstatic.votesmart.orgcdn.ballotpedia.orgfec.govradiotv.house.govdocquery.fec.govclerk.house.gov
Political Positions
LiberalConservative
Economy & Taxes
Supports significantly higher taxes on the wealthiest Americans and large corporations, closing loopholes (including carried interest and “buy, borrow, die”), raising capital gains and corporate tax rates, and using increased revenue to cut taxes for working families and expand supports (wages, Social Security protections, prescription drug and cost-of-living relief).
Healthcare
Supports expanding government-backed coverage by making Medicare buy-in or a public option available and expanding Medicare access; emphasizes lowering prescription drug costs (including capping insulin copays and importing drugs) and treating health care as a human right. Has a legislative record on prescription-cost reforms and protections for Medicaid.
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Immigration & Border
Supports comprehensive immigration reform that expands legal pathways and a pathway to citizenship for longtime residents while also strengthening border security against cartels and criminal actors. Proposes asylum-system improvements (more immigration judges, root out fraud, speed legitimate protections), modernizing ports of entry, guest-worker and employer-sponsorship programs with labor protections, and targeted enforcement against gangs and traffickers rather than broad deportation of immigrants.
Abortion & Reproductive Rights
Supports restoring and protecting reproductive freedom at the federal level, including federal legislation to codify Roe v. Wade and protections for access to contraception and IVF; opposes Texas’s near-total abortion ban and frames abortion access as a matter of bodily autonomy and public health.
Climate & Energy
Supports federal incentives and investments to expand renewable energy and grid resilience, endorses emissions-reduction planning and climate preparedness, and advocates for diversified energy innovation while maintaining transitional fossil fuel roles.
Public Safety & Guns
Supports expanded background checks for private firearm transfers and has sponsored/co-sponsored legislation to require national instant background checks; supports reforms to policing and measures to improve public safety in schools.
Latest Candidate Updates
Recent changes in prediction-market odds, polling and campaign status.
Latest News
AINews Summary
Last updatedAug 8, 2026
James Talarico is drawing attention in the Texas U.S. Senate race after recent polls showed him narrowly ahead of Ken Paxton, including one that put him up 47% to 43% among likely voters. He has also been making his campaign message more focused on affordability, with a new ad about lowering costs for Texans. At the same time, he has faced campaign scrutiny over past immigration comments and has defended his support for transgender people, saying he will not win by "selling people out."
house.texas.gov+62
Articles
NNJ.com5 days ago
Shock poll reveals Democrat has edge over Trump Republican in deep-red state
Positive
F4FOX 4 News9 days ago
Black Texas voters favor Talarico, but frustration with Democrats runs high
Positive
BNBreitbart News Network10 days ago
I Won't Win by Selling Trans People Out
Positive
FNFox News21 days ago
James Talarico's past ICE detention comments resurface in Texas race
Negative
Latest Polls
Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.
James Talarico currently averages 45.6%, ranking first in this race, 1.5 points ahead of the nearest opponent.
Polling average: 45.6%Position: firstMargin: +1.5 ptsLatest poll: 46.2% (Aug 9 - 10)Polls included: 25
Average recalculated from polls through Aug 9 - 10.
Polling Average
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
45.6%
44.1%
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
Campaign Fundraising
Latest report: Cycle 2026Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.
Total raisedCash on hand
$68.6M
$51.4M
$34.3M
$17.1M
$0
2026
LatestYear
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate
Cycle 2026
$68.6M
$21.5M
$47.0M
$2.6M
Source: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
- Endorsements