Prediction Edge
DemocratIncumbent
Josh Shapiro

Josh Shapiro

Incumbent Democratic candidate for Governor in Pennsylvania

Live Odds

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

Josh Shapiro is trading at 96% to win the Pennsylvania Governor winner? on prediction markets.

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleGovernor

PartyDemocratic

Political ideologyModerate Democrat

Age53 years old (Jun 20, 1973)

GenderMale

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LocationPennsylvania

BackgroundPolitician

EducationUniversity of Rochester

Notable personal detailsJoshua David Shapiro is an American politician and lawyer who has served as the 48th Governor of Pennsylvania since January 17, 2023. He previously served as Pennsylvania Attorney General (2017–2023), Chair of the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners (2011–2017), and a member of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives (2005–2011). He earned his undergraduate degree from the University of Rochester and a J.D. from Georgetown University Law Center. He is married to Lori Shapiro and they have four children.

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Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

As governor, Josh Shapiro has pursued a mix of tax policies: accelerating cuts to Pennsylvania’s corporate net income tax and cutting taxes for businesses and seniors, while also expanding refundable tax credits and creating a state Earned Income Tax Credit to provide relief for lower-income working families. His budgets include business-focused tax reductions combined with targeted tax credits and program investments rather than broad tax increases on high earners.

Healthcare

Supports expanding access to affordable health coverage and strengthening Medicaid and state programs rather than large-scale privatization or repeal; has signed laws and proposed state funding increases to improve access (telemedicine coverage, Medicaid funding, rural hospital support) and opposed federal Medicaid cuts. Focuses on expanding coverage and access through government programs and regulatory action rather than endorsing single‑payer proposals.

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Immigration & Border

Supports protecting DREAMers and recognizes the economic and social contributions of immigrants while opposing deployment of Pennsylvania National Guard troops to the southern border. Emphasizes the need for comprehensive federal immigration reform and maintains cooperation with federal authorities on public-safety cases, rejecting a sanctuary-state approach for Pennsylvania. Has condemned what he describes as federal overreach in aggressive immigration enforcement actions and signed proclamations marking Immigrant Heritage Month and World Refugee Day.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Supports legal access to abortion and reproductive health care in Pennsylvania, defends the availability of medication abortion including mifepristone, and has pledged to veto legislation that would ban or severely restrict abortion. Has directed administration actions to protect and expand access, including filing to challenge a Medicaid abortion-coverage ban and launching a state reproductive health resources website.

Climate & Energy

Supports state-led cap-and-invest to limit carbon emissions, increased renewable and clean-energy goals, and incentives for nuclear, hydrogen, battery storage and other low-emission technologies while allowing transitional uses of natural gas; emphasizes lowering consumer bills and job creation alongside emissions reductions.

Public Safety & Guns

Josh Shapiro supports expanding gun safety laws including universal/background checks, red flag (extreme risk) laws, regulation of ghost guns and restrictions on assault-style weapons while also funding violence-prevention programs and law enforcement resources. He has repeatedly called for closing background-check loopholes and has advocated passage of red flag legislation and measures to regulate ghost guns.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedAug 6, 2026

Josh Shapiro is in the news mainly for the 2026 Pennsylvania governor’s race, where he is facing Republican Stacy Garrity. Recent polling still shows him ahead, but his lead has narrowed compared with earlier surveys. He is also building a national profile and has been described as a likely 2028 Democratic presidential contender. Shapiro has also been active in Pennsylvania politics, including endorsing a congressional candidate and commenting on party and donor debates.

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Latest Polls

Pennsylvania Governor winner?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Josh Shapiro currently averages 52.9%, ranking first in this race, 19.8 points ahead of the nearest opponent.

Polling average: 52.9%Position: firstMargin: +19.8 ptsLatest poll: 50.0% (Aug 17 - 23)Polls included: 16

Average recalculated from polls through Aug 17 - 23.

Polling Average
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
52.9%
33.1%
Josh Shapiro
J. Shapiro
Stacy Garrity
S. Garrity
Date (Start - End)SpreadShapiroGarrity
Polling Average
Shapiro+19.8
52.9%33.1%
Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion ResearchAug 17 - 23
Shapiro+25.0
50.0%25.0%
Bravo GroupAug 18 - 22
Shapiro+31.0
56.0%25.0%
The New York Times/Siena UniversityAug 17 - 21
Shapiro+17.0
54.0%37.0%
The New York Times/Siena UniversityAug 17 - 21
Shapiro+16.0
55.0%39.0%
National Public AffairsJul 26 - 30
Shapiro+7.0
50.0%43.0%
Bravo GroupJul 17 - 24
Shapiro+25.0
53.0%28.0%
Quinnipiac UniversityJul 9 - 13
Shapiro+13.0
53.0%40.0%
Bravo GroupJun 18 - 25
Shapiro+25.0
54.0%29.0%
Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion ResearchJun 8 - 14
Shapiro+22.0
50.0%28.0%
MAD Global StrategyJun 9 - 11
Shapiro+17.0
48.0%31.0%
Bravo GroupMay 20 - 24
Shapiro+24.0
53.0%29.0%
Susquehanna Polling & ResearchMar 18 - 29
Shapiro+22.0
58.0%36.0%
Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion ResearchFeb 18 - Mar 1
Shapiro+20.0
48.0%28.0%
Quinnipiac UniversityFeb 19 - 23
Shapiro+18.0
55.0%37.0%
Quinnipiac UniversitySep 25 - 29
Shapiro+16.0
55.0%39.0%
Susquehanna Polling & ResearchSep 22 - 28
Shapiro+18.0
54.0%36.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Endorsements
  • Fundraising