$1.5K
NOV 8, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
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$1.5K
24h volume
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source: Kalshi
Fresh reporting on the GOP’s Texas redistricting advantage lines up with a meaningful market move: Republicans are now around 73% to win the Texas House, while Democrats have slid to about 29%. That makes the Texas House outcome look more GOP-favored than earlier in the week and is trader-relevant because the race is still showing a sharp repricing, not just stale drift.
The biggest Texas-specific development is the state Supreme Court ruling against punishing House Democrats who walked out over redistricting. The court left those lawmakers in office, and the new redistricting plan is already in effect for 2026. That keeps the chamber race focused on the new map rather than legal penalties. The ruling removes one source of uncertainty around the Texas House map, but it does not directly change control of the chamber. The new map could still affect the partisan balance in 2026.
Amy Davidson Sorkin on Josh Turek, Zach Wahls, Sherrod Brown, and James Talarico—and how something has changed lately in the dynamics of the Democrats’ fight to reclaim the Senate, or, at least, in the Party’s mood.
Tuesday's primary in Georgia features contentious Republican contests for governor and U.S. Senate while Democrats hope an enthusiasm advantage is enough to flip two state supreme court seats.
Groups backing Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, in the race for the Republican Senate nomination have outspent Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's allies by $69 million to $4 million as both candidates flood the airwaves with negative ads...
Ken Paxton’s backers call it an aggressive conservative enforcement. John Cornyn and some targets say Paxton is using the office as a political tool.
First on Democrats’ to-do list must be banning gerrymandering, restoring voting rights protections and reforming the Supreme Court.
Sen. John Cornyn’s bipartisan gun deal still fuels GOP backlash in runoff against Attorney General Ken Paxton
Brian Kemp may not be running for US Senate — but the Georgia governor is campaigning like his name is on the ballot.
Governor Greg Abbott and other GOP leaders had accused Democrats of abandoning their seats during a protest last year.
Cooper extended his lead over Whatley in a new poll of the North Carolina Senate race released on Thursday.
Two endangered Republican incumbents will face off in a fight for political survival in the June 2 primary in California's 40th Congressional District.
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
