Race Rating
Toss-up
Cook/270toWin 2026
Partisan lean: Competitive
ClosedGeneral Election
2026 Arizona House Election Polls, Odds & Candidates
Election Day: Recorded market close:
AZ-06 House winner?
$104.1K
NOV 3, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Race Snapshot
Compare the candidates' saved odds, polling averages and fundraising. Updated .
| Candidate | Saved odds | Poll average | Funds raised |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92% | 45.8% | $7.35M | |
| 10% | 43.1% | $6.17M |
OddsSaved odds
Prices saved with this edition; no automatic updates.
Odds History
Total volume
$104.1K
24h volume
$33.8K
source: Kalshi
Politics IQ
Structural race context from reviewed jurisdiction data
Arizona 6th District · US House
Toss-upCompetitiveDistrict contextCompetitive House rating
Seat Dynamics
Incumbent defense
Incumbent: Juan Ciscomani (R)
Election Rules
Primary Jul 21, 2026
Runoff: No
General: Nov 3, 2026
Why it matters
The district is rated Toss-up, so turnout and late-cycle spending may have outsized effects.
Sources reviewed May 2, 2026 · Office of the Clerk · 270toWin/Cook · 270toWin · NCSL
Election Dates and Deadlines
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Latest Election News
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
AINews Summary
Juan Ciscomani and JoAnna Mendoza are set to debate in Arizona's 6th Congressional District. The seat is still described as highly competitive, with both parties spending heavily. Earlier reporting said the race remains a toss-up after a bruising Democratic primary. The debate could sharpen attention on a very close race, but the overall effect is still unclear. The market likely stays near toss-up levels unless the debate shifts momentum.
Articles
TPThe Philadelphia Inquirer12 hours ago
On election night, here are the key races to watch and when polls close
Initial election results throughout Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning will say a great deal about which party prevails in the midterms.
CNCable News Network7 days ago
How to tell if Democrats are heading for a wave election in the House
House Democrats appear to be flirting with one of the biggest popular vote wins in decades. Follow these races on election night to know how well Democrats are doing.
SASanta Ana Orange County Register16 days ago
Latino voters helped put Trump back in the White House. What’s their next move?
The path to a U.S. House majority runs through heavily Latino districts in states such as Arizona, Colorado and Texas, where Democrats are counting on disaffected Trump supporters to swing back their way.
SSSpokane Spokesman-Review1 month ago
The 10 most vulnerable House members just over a month before Election Day
With less than five weeks to go until the midterm elections, Republicans face historical headwinds as the party in power and must also contend with high gas prices amid the ongoing Iran war.
CNCable News Network3 months ago
Jon Ossoff goes after Trump again as 2028 speculation heats up
Sen. Jon Ossoff stood next to Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly on Tuesday and delivered the kind of anti-Trump broadside that has become a campaign signature, marking the latest round in an escalating feud with the White House.
CNCable News Network3 months ago
Live results: Trump-backed Rep. Andy Biggs will win Arizona gubernatorial primary, CNN projects
Rep. Andy Biggs will win the Republican nomination for governor in Arizona, CNN’s Decision Desk projects, setting up a November clash with Democratic incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs in the battleground state.
L5Live 5 News WCSC11 hours ago
When do polls close and when will election results come in? A state-by-state guide to the 2026 midterms
With voters deciding thousands of races across the country, keeping track of which races to watch throughout the night and when to expect results can get tricky.
BNBreitbart News Network12 hours ago
Election night agenda: When polls close and when to expect results
With voters deciding thousands of races across the country, keeping track of which races to watch throughout the night and when to expect results can get
Latest Polls
Polling Average
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
45.8%
43.1%
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
Campaign Fundraising
Total RaisedCash on Hand
Jul 1, 2026$10M
$7.5M
$5M
$2.5M
$0
J. Mendoza
J. Ciscomani
Candidate
Total Raised
Cash on Hand
Burn Rate (per month)
Last report
J. MendozaJoAnna Mendoza$7.35MContrib: $6.44M
$3.26MSpent: $4.09M
$215.5KLast period: $1.86M
PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 1, 2026
J. CiscomaniJuan Ciscomani$6.17MContrib: $3.96M
$4.14MSpent: $2.27M
$119.7KLast period: $760.8K
PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 1, 2026
Source: FEC
Related Races
Saved Kalshi settlement results
These are market contract results, not election calls or vote totals. News, polls, prices and charts remain as captured.
Observation saved Nov 4, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC. No automatic updates.
AZ-06 House winner?
No verified final result is available for this race.
Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-6?
Settlement pending
Will Republican win the House race for AZ-6?
Settlement pending