$87.8K
MAY 27, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Green’s chances in the TX-18 Democratic runoff have risen in the short term, but he still trails Christian Menefee and remains a clear underdog; the move matters because the race is still live heading into the May 26 runoff and recent reporting shows Menefee leading in polling and fundraising.
Al Green and Christian Menefee will face a runoff for the Democratic nomination in Texas’s 18th District after neither cleared 50% in the primary. Menefee led Green in the first round, but the race remains unsettled until the May 26 runoff. The district was redrawn, which helped set up the matchup. The runoff keeps the nomination race unresolved and preserves uncertainty for the market. Menefee’s slight first-round edge may give him a modest advantage, but the outcome is still open.
Voters in Texas' 18th District have had little break in a series of elections as the result of the Republican-controlled state Legislature's redrawing of congressional districts last year.
Voters in Texas' 18th District have had little break in a series of elections as the result of the Republican-controlled state Legislature's redrawing of congressional districts last year.
Two sitting Democratic congressmen are duking it out for a redrawn district covering much of the diverse Houston metropolitan area.
Rep. Al Green, whose old district was carved up, faces fellow incumbent Rep. Christian Menefee in Texas' 18th Congressional District.
Rep. Christian Menefee, who was first elected earlier this year in a special election, is running against longtime Rep. Al Green, who had been gerrymandere
Primary election day in Texas is Tuesday with voters headed to the polls to determine the Democratic and Republican candidates for the November general election.
Seven states have adopted new maps since last summer, as the simmering redistricting war between Democrats and Republicans continues.
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
C. MenefeeChristian MenefeeA. EdwardsAmanda EdwardsA. GreenAl GreenG. BrownGretchen BrownSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
