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JUL 22, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
New local reporting says Arizona’s 1st District Republican primary is getting early debate coverage, while candidate challenges removed or sidelined some lesser-known entrants. That keeps attention on the main contenders and reinforces Jay Feely’s hold as the clear market favorite.
Chaplik is at 24% in the latest poll, 9 points ahead there, but Jay Feely still leads the odds for the Arizona-01 Republican nomination.
Jay Feely is stepping up attacks on John Trobough in the Arizona-01 Republican primary, while leaning on Donald Trump’s backing. Early debate and fundraising reports suggest Feely and Trobough are the main contenders. Court rulings have also finalized the ballot, removing another source of uncertainty. Trump’s backing and Feely’s aggressive campaigning may strengthen his position, but the race still looks competitive. The finalized ballot reduces uncertainty about who can run.
Former NFL kicker Jay Feely is escalating his attacks against Republican rival John Trobough in Arizona’s pivotal 1st Congressional District race, framing the contest as a battle between a Trump-backed outsider and a former Obama administration figure.
Primary contests begin in Arizona's 1st Congressional District to select a replacement for U.S. Rep. David Schweikert's seat.
The House Democratic campaign arm on Monday inflamed ongoing tensions over the influence of party leadership by taking sides in several competitive primaries for battleground House seats.
Turning Point is hosting President Donald Trump at a Phoenix church to help boost Arizona's Republicans in the 2026 midterms in a "Red Wall" effort.
Primary ballots can now head to the printer after a series of rulings on nomination challenges officially finalized the list of candidates allowed to appear on the ballot.
Donald Trump
Donald Trump endorsed Gina Swoboda and Jay Feely in Arizona's 1st Congressional District primary.
Donald Trump
Donald Trump endorsed Gina Swoboda in the Arizona Republican primary for the 1st Congressional District.
J. FeelyJay Feely
J. ChaplikJoseph Chaplik
K. LakeKari Lake
G. SwobodaGina Swoboda
M. BrnovichMark BrnovichSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
