FL-25 Republican nominee?
19dHigh ImpactSinger remains the clear market favorite after his late-April campaign launch and early-May endorsement coverage, keeping the Republican nominee market sharply repriced versus his earlier 14% level.
Singer remains the clear market favorite after his late-April campaign launch and early-May endorsement coverage, keeping the Republican nominee market sharply repriced versus his earlier 14% level.
Singer remains the clear market favorite after his late-April campaign launch and early-May endorsement coverage, keeping the Republican nominee market sharply repriced versus his earlier 14% level.
Singer’s Republican nominee price jumped from 77% to 14% intraday, a major repricing that materially changes the FL-25 primary market and makes him the clear favorite again.
Scott Singer’s Republican nominee odds jumped from 77% to 14% intraday, flipping the market from a close race into a clear favorite. That kind of repricing is trader-relevant because it materially changes entry, exit, and hedging decisions in a thin primary market.
The biggest development is redistricting: Florida's old 25th District was eliminated under a new map upheld by the court. Jared Moskowitz has launched a campaign in the newly redrawn 25th, while Michael Carbonara's effort has shifted to the 22nd. The Republican nomination market for FL-25 now looks tied to a changed district and a less settled field. The redistricting makes the FL-25 nomination picture less stable and may reduce the relevance of older assumptions about the district. Moskowitz's entry is the clearest new development, but the overall effect on the Republican nominee market is still uncertain.
S. SingerScott Singer
C. VillatoroClaudia Villatoro
G. MoraitisGeorge Moraitis
D. FranzeseDan FranzeseSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.