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2026 Florida Republican House Primary Polls, Odds & Candidates

Name: 2026 Florida Republican House Primary Polls, Odds & Candidates — prediction market odds
Creator: kalshi

Primary Day: Aug 18, 2026Market closes: Aug 18, 11:59pm ET (Aug 19, 3:59am UTC)

FL-06 Republican nominee?

$1.0M

AUG 18, 2026

Primary Election

Party selects its nominee.

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Race Snapshot

Compare the candidates' live odds and fundraising. Updated Aug 18, 2026, 5:23 PM UTC.

Candidate	Live odds	Funds raised
Randy Fine	98%	$4.29M
Aaron Baker	2%	$109.1K
Ernest Audino	1%	—
Dan Bilzerian	1%	$1.24M
Charles Gambaro	1%	$351.4K
Alexandra van Cleef	1%	—

OddsLive Odds

Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Aug 18, 2026, 5:23 PM UTC.

Odds History

Total volume

$1.0M

24h volume

$324.7K

R. Fine98%

A. Baker2%

E. Audino1%

No chart data available yet.

source: Kalshi

Election Dates and Deadlines

Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.

August

TUE 18

Florida 2026 primary

Prediction market closes

November

TUE 3

Florida 2026 general election

Latest Race Updates

Key developments affecting the candidates, polls and prediction market odds.

FL-06 Republican nominee?

11h

Fine’s Republican-nominee price rebounded to 0.98 after trading around 0.89 intraday, with heavy 24-hour volume and fresh reporting still showing him facing a slate of August primary challengers.

98%9%

Latest Election News

Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.

AINews Summary

Democrats are reported to have outraised Republican incumbents in many competitive House races, including in Florida. The article also points to polling, Trump’s approval rating, and possible Florida redistricting as factors shaping the 2026 outlook. The fundraising news may slightly weaken Republican sentiment in Florida House races, but it does not directly identify this district’s nominee contest. Redistricting adds uncertainty to the broader environment.

Articles

PJProvidence Journal (Projo)1 day ago

MAGA candidate Vic Mellor dominates spending in RI CD2 race

Finance reports show Mellor loaning his campaign $2.2M, and then paying himself over $200,000 for in-kind work.

SLSalt Lake City Deseret News1 day ago

Republicans and Democrats decry antisemitic attacks in tense Florida GOP primary

Members of both parties denounced a Republican candidate for attacking an incumbent House member who is Jewish.

NNPR26 days ago

GOP redistricting has divided Black areas in these 6 states : NPR

These maps show that the redistricting battle President Trump initiated has so far had a particular impact on largely Black congressional districts in Republican-led states.

TNThe New Yorker3 months ago

Can Hakeem Jeffries Lead a Democratic Takeover of the House?

An unprecedented gerrymandering effort led by Donald Trump—and internal divisions among Democrats—has made the Minority Leader’s path to victory harder than ever, Jason Zengerle reports.

UTUSA TODAY3 months ago

Protesters in Selma say voting rights under attack in South

Protesters gathered in Selma, Alabama, among other locations, to push back as Republican-led southern states redraw congressional boundaries.

REReading Eagle3 months ago

Louisiana advances plan to eliminate majority-Black US House district

Louisiana GOP senators advanced plan to eliminate one majority-Black, Democratic-held seat.

LALos Angeles Times3 months ago

Missouri's new U.S. House map goes to court while Louisiana and South Carolina consider redistricting

Rather than waning, a national redistricting battle that began 10 months ago has intensified — inflamed by a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling that weakened the federal Voting Rights Act.

UNU.S. News & World Report3 months ago

GOP Fast-Tracks New Voting Maps After Landmark Supreme Court Ruling

After the Supreme Court dealt a blow to the Voting Rights Act last week, these Republican states are racing to redraw district lines.

NNewsweek1 month ago

Map Shows Where Democrats Massively Outraising Republican Incumbents

More than a dozen House Republicans are being outraised by their opponents ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

UNU.S. News & World Report2 months ago

AP Decision Notes: What to Expect in Alabama’s State Primary Runoff

WASHINGTON (AP) — Alabama voters will return to the polls Tuesday to finalize nominees for an open U.S. Senate seat and a handful of other contests in which no candidate received a majority of votes in the May 19 primary.

Candidate Endorsements

Dan Bilzerian1

Bill Maher

Charles Gambaro8

Campaign Fundraising

Campaign finance totals for the 2026 cycle, including money raised, spent and cash on hand.

Total RaisedCash on Hand

Sep 30, 2026

$5M

$3.8M

$2.5M

$1.3M

R. Fine

D. Bilzerian

C. Gambaro

A. Baker

Candidate

Total Raised

Cash on Hand

Burn Rate (per month)

Last report

R. FineRandy Fine

$4.29MContrib: $2.95M

$1.19MSpent: $3.10M

$162.9KLast period: $50.1K

PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 29, 2026

D. BilzerianDan Bilzerian

$1.24MContrib: $36.0K

$1.03MSpent: $386.6K

$18.4KLast period: $0

OCTOBER QUARTERLY · Sep 30, 2026

C. GambaroCharles Gambaro

$351.4KContrib: $89.3K

$3.7KSpent: $347.7K

$18.3KLast period: $250

PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 29, 2026

A. BakerAaron Baker

$109.1KContrib: $97.4K

$518Spent: $108.6K

$5.7KLast period: $10.2K

TERMINATION REPORT · Jul 29, 2026

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

Polls

2026 Florida Republican House Primary Polls, Odds & Candidates

FL-06 Republican nominee?

Race Snapshot

OddsLive Odds

Odds History

Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Race Updates

FL-06 Republican nominee?

Latest Election News

MAGA candidate Vic Mellor dominates spending in RI CD2 race

Republicans and Democrats decry antisemitic attacks in tense Florida GOP primary

GOP redistricting has divided Black areas in these 6 states : NPR

Can Hakeem Jeffries Lead a Democratic Takeover of the House?

Protesters in Selma say voting rights under attack in South

Louisiana advances plan to eliminate majority-Black US House district

Missouri's new U.S. House map goes to court while Louisiana and South Carolina consider redistricting

GOP Fast-Tracks New Voting Maps After Landmark Supreme Court Ruling

Map Shows Where Democrats Massively Outraising Republican Incumbents

AP Decision Notes: What to Expect in Alabama’s State Primary Runoff

Candidate Endorsements

Campaign Fundraising

Related Races

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Race Snapshot

Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Race Updates

FL-06 Republican nominee?

Latest Election News

MAGA candidate Vic Mellor dominates spending in RI CD2 race

Republicans and Democrats decry antisemitic attacks in tense Florida GOP primary

GOP redistricting has divided Black areas in these 6 states : NPR

Can Hakeem Jeffries Lead a Democratic Takeover of the House?

Protesters in Selma say voting rights under attack in South

Louisiana advances plan to eliminate majority-Black US House district

Missouri's new U.S. House map goes to court while Louisiana and South Carolina consider redistricting

GOP Fast-Tracks New Voting Maps After Landmark Supreme Court Ruling

Map Shows Where Democrats Massively Outraising Republican Incumbents

AP Decision Notes: What to Expect in Alabama’s State Primary Runoff

Candidate Endorsements

Campaign Fundraising

Related Races

Florida Republican Governor nominee?

FL-25 Democratic nominee?

FL-22 Republican nominee?

Florida Governor winner?