$513.3K
AUG 18, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
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Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Aug 14, 2026, 8:23 PM UTC.
source: Kalshi
Compare the candidates' live odds and fundraising. Updated .
| Candidate | Live odds | Funds raised |
|---|---|---|
| 98% | $4.29M | |
| 2% | $109.1K | |
| 2% | $1.24M | |
| 1% | — | |
| 1% | $351.4K | |
| 1% | — |
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
Democrats are reported to have outraised Republican incumbents in many competitive House races, including in Florida. The article also points to polling, Trump’s approval rating, and possible Florida redistricting as factors shaping the 2026 outlook. The fundraising news may slightly weaken Republican sentiment in Florida House races, but it does not directly identify this district’s nominee contest. Redistricting adds uncertainty to the broader environment.
These maps show that the redistricting battle President Trump initiated has so far had a particular impact on largely Black congressional districts in Republican-led states.
An unprecedented gerrymandering effort led by Donald Trump—and internal divisions among Democrats—has made the Minority Leader’s path to victory harder than ever, Jason Zengerle reports.
Protesters gathered in Selma, Alabama, among other locations, to push back as Republican-led southern states redraw congressional boundaries.
Louisiana GOP senators advanced plan to eliminate one majority-Black, Democratic-held seat.
Rather than waning, a national redistricting battle that began 10 months ago has intensified — inflamed by a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling that weakened the federal Voting Rights Act.
After the Supreme Court dealt a blow to the Voting Rights Act last week, these Republican states are racing to redraw district lines.
More than a dozen House Republicans are being outraised by their opponents ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Alabama voters will return to the polls Tuesday to finalize nominees for an open U.S. Senate seat and a handful of other contests in which no candidate received a majority of votes in the May 19 primary.
Last year, the Republican congresswoman accused her ex-fiancé of sexual assault. It may have doomed her bid for South Carolina’s gubernatorial nomination. Moira Donegan reports.
Alabama officials asked the Supreme Court to allow the state to use a congressional map that would likely flip a Democratic seat in favor of the GOP.
Campaign finance totals for the 2026 cycle, including money raised, spent and cash on hand.
R. FineRandy Fine
D. BilzerianDan Bilzerian
C. GambaroCharles Gambaro
A. BakerAaron BakerSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
