$126.9K
AUG 19, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Baker’s share has jumped from roughly 2% a day ago to 9%, giving the long-shot challenger more trader-relevant liquidity while Randy Fine remains the clear favorite. The move matters because it signals the market is assigning slightly more value to a primary upset path, even if Fine still dominates.
Fine’s nomination odds pushed to a fresh high, reinforcing him as the heavy favorite in Florida’s 6th District Republican primary. That matters because the latest public reporting still shows a crowded but fragmented field, so traders are mostly pricing consolidation around the incumbent rather than a real primary upset.
Fine’s win probability is back near 86% after an intraday swing, keeping him the clear favorite in a crowded Republican primary. That matters for traders because the market is still pricing consolidation around the incumbent rather than a meaningful threat from the long-shot field.
The biggest new development is backlash against Randy Fine over anti-Armenian remarks aimed at challenger Dan Bilzerian. The Armenian National Committee of America condemned the comments, adding pressure in the Florida 6th District GOP primary. No polling or vote results were reported. The remarks could hurt Fine if they widen backlash in the primary. Based on the summaries, the effect is negative for him but still uncertain.
An unprecedented gerrymandering effort led by Donald Trump—and internal divisions among Democrats—has made the Minority Leader’s path to victory harder than ever, Jason Zengerle reports.
Retired historian Michael Allen says proposed congressional redistricting changes are not simply administrative adjustments; they represent a dangerous shift in the trajectory of our democracy.
Protesters gathered in Selma, Alabama, among other locations, to push back as Republican-led southern states redraw congressional boundaries.
Louisiana GOP senators advanced plan to eliminate one majority-Black, Democratic-held seat.
Rather than waning, a national redistricting battle that began 10 months ago has intensified — inflamed by a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling that weakened the federal Voting Rights Act.
After the Supreme Court dealt a blow to the Voting Rights Act last week, these Republican states are racing to redraw district lines.
Representative Randy Fine faces backlash from Armenian Americans for saying "we don't want Armenians to be able to serve in Congress."
Donald Trump
Donald Trump endorsed Randy Fine for Florida's 6th Congressional District special election.
Christopher C. Miller
Christopher C. Miller endorsed Charles Gambaro's congressional campaign.
R. FineRandy Fine
C. GambaroCharles GambaroA. BakerAaron BakerSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
