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AUG 19, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
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Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Seth Harp's odds are now 52%, above the previous high of 31%.
The biggest new item is a report that Democrats outraised Republican incumbents in many competitive House races, including in Florida. The article also points to polling, Trump’s approval rating, and Florida redistricting as factors shaping the 2026 landscape. It does not report a direct change in this nomination contest. This is a broad Democratic fundraising signal, but it does not identify the nominee race directly. It may modestly improve Democratic sentiment while leaving this nomination market mostly unchanged.
Elections fought across America may be decided in far fewer places than the national map suggests, a Newsweek analysis has found.
These maps show that the redistricting battle President Trump initiated has so far had a particular impact on largely Black congressional districts in Republican-led states.
The AIPAC-backed candidate in Kentucky's 4th Congressional district won, but two AIPAC-supported candidates lost in Pennsylvania's 3rd.
How Utah’s redistricting fight echoes a nationwide battle over congressional representation
Republican redistricting gains offset Democrats' generic ballot edge in the midterms, leaving the house majority hinging on a handful of toss-up races across competitive districts.
More than a dozen House Republicans are being outraised by their opponents ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
An unprecedented gerrymandering effort led by Donald Trump—and internal divisions among Democrats—has made the Minority Leader’s path to victory harder than ever, Jason Zengerle reports.
The group is asking members across all 250 chapters to weigh who they want to back in the next presidential election and why, according to a plan first shared with POLITICO.
In primary races across the country, debates over Israel are taking center stage, dividing Democrats and Republicans alike.
Florida LGBTQ+ Democratic Caucus
Florida LGBTQ+ Democratic Caucus endorsed Seth Harp for Congress.
S. HarpSeth Harp
G. HubacGeorge Hubac
T. WellsTom Wells
T. AlbersTroy AlbersSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
