$3.1K
NOV 3, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Deposit $10, get $25 on Polymarket
Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Oct 23, 2026, 6:58 PM UTC.
source: Kalshi
Compare the candidates' live odds and fundraising. Updated .
| Candidate | Live odds | Funds raised |
|---|---|---|
| 98% | $4.71M | |
| 3% | $7.5K |
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
The biggest Kentucky House development in the feed is Thomas Massie losing the Republican nomination in Kentucky's 4th District. That race featured Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein and had been described as close. The other items are broader primary coverage and do not directly move this district's general-election outlook. The Kentucky House news points to a Republican primary shakeup, but it does not directly change this district's 2026 general-election market. Overall, the feed suggests continued GOP primary volatility rather than a clear shift in the seat's party outlook.
In today’s edition, we take stock of President Donald Trump’s retribution campaign this month as Ken Paxton and James Talarico look ahead to the general election in Texas.
US Rep. Barry Moore and former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson have advanced to a runoff for the Republican nomination for the open U.S. Senate seat in Alabama.
The Kentucky primary pits Massie, one of the most conservative members of Congress, against Trump and many wealthy donors.
By JONATHAN J. COOPER and STEVE PEOPLES WASHINGTON (AP) — Is there a future in politics for Republicans who cross President Donald Trump? The signs this year suggest no, and Trump has convinced his voters to defeat his adversaries again and again. The next test of the president’s power to extract retribution is on Tuesday, […]
Get live updates and the latest news as Trump arrives in China for his summit with Xi Jinping and the Nebraska 2nd Congressional District Democratic primary remains too close to call.
President Donald Trump and allies target Sen. Bill Cassidy and Rep. Thomas Massie in upcoming GOP primaries after Trump-backed challengers won five Indiana state Senate races.
Here are takeaways from primaries in Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon and Pennsylvania.
President Donald Trump has scored another win against a Republican rival, purging Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky’s primary and knocking out one of his most outspoken critics on Capitol Hill. Massie has been a particularly difficult thorn in Trump’s side. He pushed for the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files, opposed the war with Iran and voted against Trump’s signature tax legislation last year. He lost Tuesday to Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein following the most expensive U.S. House primary in history. He had tried to convince Republicans that they could support both himself and Trump at the same time, a proposition that has been tried unsuccessfully in other races around the country.
Spencer Pratt, like President Trump before him, is a political product of the reality-TV industrial complex. And like Trump in 2016, he has no experience in public office.
Campaign finance totals for the 2026 cycle, including money raised, spent and cash on hand.
B. GuthrieBrett Guthrie
M. WingfieldMegan WingfieldSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
