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$8.9K
MAY 17, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
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Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Tia LeBrun’s odds in "LA-03 Democratic nominee?" are down to 38%, below the prior low of 48% over the last 60 days.
The biggest development is the Supreme Court’s ruling striking down Louisiana’s majority-Black congressional district. Roberts has defended the decision as legal, not political, while reports say it could affect redistricting and House control. The impact on this nomination market is indirect, but it may change the broader district landscape. The ruling adds uncertainty around Louisiana redistricting and could improve Republican prospects if district lines change. For this nomination market, the effect is indirect but may shift the broader race environment.
The NRCC’s polling of the battleground districts shows Republicans are competitive in five Democrat-held districts that Trump won in 2024.
HERSHEY — Supreme Court justices are not “political actors,” Chief Justice John Roberts said Wednesday, insisting unpopular court decisions are based solely on the law. “I think, at a very basic level, people think we’re making policy decisions, we’re saying we think this is how things should be, as opposed
“I still don't understand it”, Fields said. “We went down this road 150 years ago with Reconstruction. Louisiana was the first state to elect a black member of Congress, and now we’re trying to silence those voices”.
T. LeBrunTia LeBrun
J. DayJohn DaySource: FEC
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