Race Rating
Safe or unrated
Cook/270toWin 2026
Partisan lean: Safe Republican or unrated
ClosedGeneral Election
2026 Louisiana House Election Polls, Odds & Candidates
Election Day: Recorded market close:
LA-04 House winner?
$9.5K
NOV 3, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
R. party
97.3%
D. party
3.2%
OddsSaved odds
Prices saved with this edition; no automatic updates.
Odds History
Total volume
$9.5K
24h volume
$5.1K
source: Kalshi
Politics IQ
Structural race context from reviewed jurisdiction data
Louisiana 4th District · US House
Safe or unratedSafe Republican or unratedDistrict contextRunoff possible
Seat Dynamics
Incumbent defense
Incumbent: Mike Johnson (R)
Election Rules
Primary May 16, 2026
Runoff: Jun 27, 2026
General: Nov 3, 2026
Sources reviewed May 2, 2026 · Office of the Clerk · 270toWin/Cook · 270toWin · NCSL
Election Dates and Deadlines
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Latest Election News
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
AINews Summary
The main new item is Mike Johnson's public opposition to a congressional AI moratorium and his push to leave AI safety to industry. The article says AI policy is becoming a midterm issue and could affect his speakership. No district-specific Louisiana 4th race developments were reported. Little direct impact on the Louisiana 4th District House market. The AI story is more about Johnson's broader political standing than this district race.
Articles
UTUSA TODAY2 days ago
Midterm upheaval: The campaign is reshaping politics for Trump, Dems
Dissatisfaction with those in charge has been the default of America's dyspeptic politics for a decade. That's still true this time around.
TWThe Washington Post2 days ago
Schumer calls Haley Stevens’s endorsement of Mike Rogers ‘a despicable betrayal’
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer had endorsed Stevens in the heated Democratic primary for the coveted Senate seat.
TMThe Mercury News4 days ago
For under-50 Senate hopefuls, age isn’t just a number
“Young” is a relative term in the Senate.
PPOLITICO2 days ago
The 'Blacklash' Is Here
Anger at Trump is driving a surge in Black turnout across the South.
NYNew York Post6 months ago
Rep. Thomas Massie ousted in Kentucky by Trump-backed Ed Gallrein
The contest for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District will go down as the most expensive primary race in US history, with more than $32 million spent on political ads, according to the firm AdImpact.
NNNBC News6 months ago
Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein unseats Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky GOP primary
Former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein has won the Republican primary in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District over Rep. Thomas Massie.
Saved Kalshi settlement results
These are market contract results, not election calls or vote totals. News, polls, prices and charts remain as captured.
Observation saved Nov 4, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC. No automatic updates.
LA-04 House winner?
All preserved contracts have verified final results.
Democratic party
Will Democratic win the House race for LA-04?
Final: No
Settled Nov 4, 2026, 4:20 AM UTC
Republican party
Will Republican win the House race for LA-04?
Final: Yes
Settled Nov 4, 2026, 4:20 AM UTC