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Who will win the 2026 Missouri District 2 US House Democratic Primary?

Aug 5, 2026, 3:59am UTC, in 22 daysLast updated: Jul 14, 2026, 4:38 PM UTC

MO-02 Democratic nominee?

$8.9K

AUG 5, 2026

Primary Election

Party selects its nominee.

Fred Wellman

Joan VonDras

Nick Vivio

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OddsCurrent Odds

Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.

Total volume

$8.9K

24h volume

$48

Fred Wellman

Joan VonDras

Nick Vivio

No chart data available yet.

source: Kalshi

Latest Insights

MO-02 Democratic nominee?

3d

Fred Wellman is now at 84% and has moved ahead of the prior leader in the Missouri 2nd District Democratic nomination race.

84%

News

AINews Summary

Missouri is moving ahead with the Aug. 4 primary under a newly drawn congressional map, but the map’s legal status is still unsettled. A referendum petition and court case could still change which districts are used in November, creating a possible mismatch between the primary and general election maps. This adds uncertainty to the nomination environment, since the district lines used to choose the nominee may not match the final general-election map. That could make the market harder to price until the legal fight is resolved.

Articles

NNewsweek1 month ago

Democrats’ Chances of Flipping Trump Stronghold That Obama Won Twice

Democrats are leaning heavily on Iowa's economic pain to make their case against the Republicans.

CNCable News Network2 months ago

A Paralympian and ‘prairie populist’: How this Iowa Senate candidate is trying to spark a rural revival for Democrats

Theresa Weeks was making spaghetti when a Senate candidate came knocking on her door.

SNSpringfield News-Leader27 days ago

Despite legal limbo, MO primary moves forward with gerrymandered map

Missouri officials are using a contested congressional map for the August primary while legal challenges remain unresolved.

ADAnchorage Daily News2 months ago

How this age of extreme gerrymandering is transforming American politics

Politicians, no longer content to leave elections to chance, are working to choose their voters as often as every two years.

Endorsements

Fred Wellman

Abortion Action Missouri

Abortion Action Missouri endorsed Fred Wellman for Missouri's 2nd Congressional District.

Missouri AFL-CIO

Missouri AFL-CIO endorsed Fred Wellman in the August 4 primary for Missouri's 2nd Congressional District.

Common Defense

Common Defense endorsed Fred Wellman for Congress in Missouri's 2nd District.

Votegreer

State Representative-Elect Votegreer backed Fred Wellman.

Joan VonDras

Unnamed healthcare reform advocate

An unnamed healthcare reform advocate endorsed Joan VonDras for Congress.

Nick Vivio

Bonhomme Democrats

Bonhomme Democrats posted support for Nick Vivio in the MO-02 Democratic primary.

Fundraising

Total RaisedCash on Hand

Mar 31, 2026

$1M

$750K

$500K

$250K

$0

F. Wellman

J. VonDras

N. Vivio

T. Bilash

Candidate

Total Raised

Cash on Hand

Burn Rate (per month)

Last report

Fred Wellman

F. WellmanFred Wellman

$808.8KContrib: $808.7K

$246.6KSpent: $562.2K

$37.5KLast period: $376.4K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

Joan VonDras

J. VonDrasJoan VonDras

$322.0KContrib: $59.9K

$225.7KSpent: $96.2K

$6.4KLast period: $45.1K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

Nick Vivio

N. VivioNick Vivio

$133.1KContrib: $133.1K

$21.1KSpent: $112.0K

$7.5KLast period: $18.9K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

Timothy D Bilash

T. BilashTimothy D Bilash

$3.6KContrib: $2.5K

$129Spent: $3.7K

$249Last period: $100

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

Source: FEC