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Who will win the 2026 New Jersey District 7 US House Democratic Primary?

Jun 9, 2026, 3:00pm GMT+3, in 22 daysLast updated: May 19, 2026, 9:38 AM UTC

NJ-07 Democratic nominee?

$9.9K

JUN 9, 2026

Primary Election

Party selects its nominee.

OddsCurrent Odds

Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.

Total volume

$9.9K

24h volume

$10

R. Bennett79%

B. Varela16%

T. Shah9%

Loading chart data...

source: Kalshi

Upcoming Events

June

TUE 2

New Jersey 2026 primary

November

TUE 3

New Jersey 2026 general election

Latest Insights

Rebecca Bennett

0%24H87%

Bennett’s nomination odds rose from 87% to 87% in the last hour, extending a weeklong uptrend as fresh reporting highlights her fundraising edge and growing county-party backing in the NJ-7 Democratic primary.

Tina Shah

4%24H12%

Shah’s Democratic nomination odds have fallen back to about 8% after trading near 12% 24 hours ago, while fresh coverage of Tom Kean Jr.’s two-month congressional absence is keeping the broader NJ-7 race in the news. That combination is relevant for traders because the district remains competitive and Shah’s market is still vulnerable to small shifts in attention and candidate momentum.

16h

Tina Shah

4%24H8%

Shah’s Democratic nominee odds fell from 12% to about 8% intraday, while fresh reporting says the May 12 NJ-7 debate left Rebecca Bennett still in command of the field. That combination makes Shah’s path look weaker going into the June 2 primary, which is trader-relevant even in a fragmented race.

News

AINews Summary

Tom Kean Jr.'s extended absence from Congress is the biggest recent development in New Jersey's 7th District. Democrats are using it against him in a race that is already expected to be close. New Jersey's primaries are set for June 2, with early voting starting May 26. Kean's prolonged absence may slightly help Democrats by raising doubts about his campaign readiness. The overall market still looks competitive and uncertain ahead of the primary and general election.

Articles

PPOLITICO1 month ago

An unabashed progressive dominates in New Jersey, another midterm warning sign for Republicans

Analilia Mejia, a former top Bernie Sanders staffer, convincingly won a House seat despite "radical" label.

APAsbury Park Press1 month ago

Democrats pushing Analilia Mejia for NJ 11th election

Democrats are pulling out all the stops to ensure Analilia Mejia wins the April 16 special election in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District.

NNJ.com5 days ago

Tom Kean Jr. has been missing from Congress for 2 months. Nobody will say why.

The congressman's chief of staff says he will return to a regular schedule soon, but GOP colleagues report "radio silence" and House leadership remains in the dark.

TPThe Philadelphia Inquirer20 days ago

Republican Tom Kean Jr. is missing votes in N.J.'s most competitive district

Kean Jr.'s absence while addressing a personal health issue reignites a debate about how much constituents are entitled to know about an elected official's health.

APAsbury Park Press1 month ago

When are the NJ primaries and why we have an election in April?

There are 39 Democratic candidates and 18 Republicans. Here's who's running and when to vote.

TNThe New Yorker24 hours ago

Can Hakeem Jeffries Lead a Democratic Takeover of the House?

An unprecedented gerrymandering effort led by Donald Trump—and internal divisions among Democrats—has made the Minority Leader’s path to victory harder than ever, Jason Zengerle reports.

NNewsweek1 month ago

Republicans Risk Losing 34 Seats Where Gas Prices Are Rising

Democrats consider dozens of seats "in play" this November, and aim to leverage the domestic fallout from Trump's war in Iran.

NNewsBreak4 days ago

A third of the Congressional Black Caucus could lose seats amid redistricting fight

Some members say redistricting is taking the U.S. backwards.

APAsbury Park Press8 days ago

NJ activist sees fruits of her labor - many primary rivals | Opinion

Sue Altman helped end NJ's 'county line' ballot system that favored incumbents. Now she faces 12 rivals in the 12th Congressional District primary.

PPOLITICO3 months ago

Trump is causing a midterm headache for this New Jersey congressmember

The purchase of a warehouse for immigration detention and a funding fight over rail tunnel puts the vulnerable Tom Kean Jr. in a bind.

Polls

Polling Average

15%10%5%0%

10%

R. Bennett

T. Shah

M. O'Rourke

B. Varela

M. Roth

Date (Start - End)	Spread	Bennett	Shah	O'Rourke	Varela	Roth
Polling Average	Bennett+2.0	10.0%	8.0%	5.0%	4.0%	3.0%
GQRFeb 22 - 25	Bennett+2.0	10.0%	8.0%	5.0%	4.0%	3.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

Rebecca Bennett

Megan O'Rourke

Megan O'Rourke endorsed Rebecca Bennett for New Jersey's 7th Congressional District primary.

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Sara Sooy

Sara Sooy endorsed Rebecca Bennett for New Jersey's 7th Congressional District primary.

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Jason Crow

Jason Crow endorsed Rebecca Bennett in New Jersey's 7th Congressional District race.

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Pat Ryan

Pat Ryan endorsed Rebecca Bennett in New Jersey's 7th Congressional District race.

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Patrick Murphy and Taking The Hill PAC

Patrick Murphy and Taking The Hill PAC endorsed Rebecca Bennett for Congress.

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Brian Varela

Sussex County Democratic convention

Sussex County Democratic convention endorsed Brian Varela for New Jersey's 7th Congressional District.

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Fundraising

Total RaisedCash on Hand

Mar 31, 2026

$5M

$3.8M

$2.5M

$1.3M

R. Bennett

T. Shah

B. Varela

M. Roth

M. O'Rourke

B. Adubato

S. Sooy

Candidate

Total Raised

Cash on Hand

Burn Rate (per month)

Last report

R. BennettRebecca Bennett

$2.66MContrib: $2.59M

$1.43MSpent: $1.23M

$82.0KLast period: $689.7K