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NOV 7, 2026
General Election
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source: Kalshi
Republican win odds in New Jersey’s 7th House race remain depressed at 22% as reporting this week says Tom Kean Jr. has now missed more than two months of House votes and still has no firm return date. That prolongs the incumbent-risk narrative in a toss-up district and keeps traders focused on whether the absence becomes a lasting campaign liability.
Republican win odds in New Jersey’s 7th House race slipped from 22% to 22% over the past day as reporting continues to focus on Rep. Tom Kean Jr.’s extended medical absence. That keeps the district’s toss-up status in play and matters to traders if his absence drags into the campaign period.
Republican win odds in New Jersey’s 7th House race have dropped to 22% from 29% over the past day, alongside fresh reporting that incumbent Tom Kean Jr. remains absent from Congress for a personal medical issue. That keeps the district’s competitiveness in focus and may matter to traders if the absence continues into the sprint to the June 2 primary and beyond.
Tom Kean Jr. says he will run for re-election despite a prolonged absence from Congress tied to a serious but temporary illness. The health issue has drawn attention from Republicans and given Democrats an opening in a district expected to be competitive. Kean’s decision to run again may reduce uncertainty for Republicans, but his prolonged absence and health concerns could weigh on his standing. The race still looks competitive.
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U.S. Rep. Tom Kean Jr. has been absent from Congress since early May because of a personal health issue.
Kean Jr.'s absence while addressing a personal health issue reignites a debate about how much constituents are entitled to know about an elected official's health.
The congressman's chief of staff says he will return to a regular schedule soon, but GOP colleagues report "radio silence" and House leadership remains in the dark.
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The New Jersey Republican has not voted in the House since March 5, citing a “personal health matter.”
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
