$619.00
NOV 7, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
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Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
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source: Kalshi
New reporting keeps TX-18 centered on the Menefee-Green runoff, with Menefee showing a fundraising edge and both candidates drawing attention in debate coverage. That matters because the district is safe Democratic, so the main trader angle is which Democrat is consolidating the race before the May 26 runoff.
Christian Menefee won the Democratic runoff in Texas’s 18th District, defeating Al Green and securing the party nomination. The race was shaped by redistricting, delays, and outside spending. Reports say Menefee is favored in the November general election against Republican Ronald Whitfield. Menefee’s runoff win likely strengthens the Democratic hold on the seat and lowers uncertainty. The market should continue to favor Democrats unless new general-election developments emerge.
Christian Menefee defeated longtime Rep. Al Green in the Democratic primary runoff for Texas’ 18th Congressional District.
Texas redistricting forced Reps. Al Green and Christian Menefee into the same Houston-area Democratic runoff, pitting two sitting House Democrats against each other.
Freshman Rep. Christian Menefee defeated longtime Rep. Al Green in the Democratic primary runoff for Texas’ 18th Congressional District, NBC News projects, after a rare incumbent-on-incumbent matchup sparked by Republican-led redistricting efforts.
One of the biggest shifts in the Texas political landscape came in the voters' decision to select Attorney General Ken Paxton as the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, ousting four-term incumbent John Cornyn.
The race pitted two Democratic incumbents against each other after Republicans redrew the congressional map in their favor.
All eyes will be on the Republican Senate runoff between the incumbent John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. But the runoffs will feature other important contests.
Voters in the Lone Star State will make their second attempt to nominate a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in a primary runoff election on Tuesday, the electoral version of the Texas two-step.
Despite his brawler reputation, Green lost an incumbent vs. incumbent primary runoff against Rep. Christian Menefee (D-TX).
Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) scored a proxy win in Tuesday’s Texas primary runoffs over state Rep. James Talarico, who beat her out in the initial Democ
By Patrick Svitek, CNN (CNN) — Republican Sen. John Cornyn’s uphill battle for renomination from his party reaches its conclusion Tuesday as voters head to the polls in the Texas primary runoffs. Cornyn’s race against state Attorney General Ken Paxton was considered highly competitive until a week ago, when President Donald Trump abruptly backed Paxton
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.