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Who will win the 2026 Florida Senate Republican Primary?

Aug 19, 2026, 3:59am UTC, in 88 daysLast updated: May 23, 2026, 4:23 AM UTC

Florida Republican Senate nominee?

$88.1K

AUG 19, 2026

Primary Election

Party selects its nominee.

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OddsCurrent Odds

Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.

Total volume

$88.1K

24h volume

A. Moody91%

R. DeSantis7%

José R. Oliva2%

Loading chart data...

source: Kalshi

Upcoming Events

August

TUE 18

Florida 2026 primary

November

TUE 3

Florida 2026 general election

Latest Insights

Ashley Moody

24H97%

Donald Trump backed Ashley Moody for "Florida Republican Senate nominee?", and Moody is currently at 97%.

News

AINews Summary

Early Florida Senate polling shows Ashley Moody with a lead in some surveys, but other polls have her running close with Democrat Alex Vindman. Moody also faces a crowded field of challengers. A recent Florida special-election upset may add some caution for Republicans, though it is not directly about this race. The polling keeps Moody as the main Republican name to watch, but the close surveys add some uncertainty. The special-election upset is a weak negative signal for Republicans, though it is not directly tied to the Senate primary.

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Fundraising

Total RaisedCash on Hand

Mar 31, 2026

$10M

$7.5M

$5M

$2.5M

A. Moody

C. Mills

Candidate

Total Raised

Cash on Hand

Burn Rate (per month)

Last report

A. MoodyAshley Moody

$8.41MContrib: $4.32M

$7.13MSpent: $1.28M

$85.2KLast period: $1.67M

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

C. MillsCory Mills

$805.3KContrib: $684.5K

$115.5KSpent: $730.7K

$48.7KLast period: $70.8K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

Polls
Endorsements

Who will win the 2026 Florida Senate Republican Primary?

Florida Republican Senate nominee?

OddsCurrent Odds

Upcoming Events

Latest Insights

Ashley Moody

News

The Latest: Trump scores another win against Republican rival with Rep. Thomas Massie’s primary loss

Dirty Brad Raffensperger Loses GOP Gubernatorial Primary in Peach Tree State Shellacking!

Lago was once packed with spectators. Not this year

Trump’s second term is increasingly about one thing: Trump

Poll numbers show how Florida's US Senate candidates are doing

Senate Republicans confirm nearly 50 of Trump's picks for energy, land management

Ebola, Anderson Cooper in Daily Briefing

Live updates: Trump to arrive in China for Xi summit; Nebraska congressional primary too close to call

Marco Rubio Says He Will Support JD Vance in 2028, Pledges to Be ‘First Person’ to Endorse Him

New US House map in Florida accused of violating state ban on partisan gerrymandering

Fundraising

Related races

Florida Republican Governor nominee?

FL-16 Republican nominee?

FL-06 Republican nominee?

Florida Governor winner?

Upcoming Events

Latest Insights

Ashley Moody

News

The Latest: Trump scores another win against Republican rival with Rep. Thomas Massie’s primary loss

Dirty Brad Raffensperger Loses GOP Gubernatorial Primary in Peach Tree State Shellacking!

Lago was once packed with spectators. Not this year

Trump’s second term is increasingly about one thing: Trump

Poll numbers show how Florida's US Senate candidates are doing

Senate Republicans confirm nearly 50 of Trump's picks for energy, land management

Ebola, Anderson Cooper in Daily Briefing

Live updates: Trump to arrive in China for Xi summit; Nebraska congressional primary too close to call

Marco Rubio Says He Will Support JD Vance in 2028, Pledges to Be ‘First Person’ to Endorse Him

New US House map in Florida accused of violating state ban on partisan gerrymandering

Fundraising

Related races

Florida Republican Governor nominee?

FL-16 Republican nominee?

FL-06 Republican nominee?

Florida Governor winner?