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Who will win the 2026 Louisiana Senate Republican Primary?

Jun 27, 2026, 3:59pm UTC, in 35 daysLast updated: May 24, 2026, 10:23 AM UTC

Louisiana Republican Senate nominee?

$657.5K

JUN 27, 2026

Primary Election

Party selects its nominee.

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OddsCurrent Odds

Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.

Total volume

$657.5K

24h volume

$4.1K

J. Letlow94%

J. Fleming9%

E. Skrmetta1%

Loading chart data...

source: Kalshi

Upcoming Events

June

SAT 27

Louisiana 2026 primary runoff, if required

November

TUE 3

Louisiana 2026 general election

Latest Insights

John Fleming

24H9%

Donald Trump backed John Fleming for the Louisiana Republican Senate nominee race, and Fleming is at 9%.

Julia Letlow

24H90%

Donald Trump backed Julia Letlow for "Louisiana Republican Senate nominee?", and she is currently at 90%.

John Fleming’s Republican nominee price dropped from 21% to 10% as AP confirmed Bill Cassidy’s elimination and the Letlow-Fleming runoff. That matters because the market is now treating Fleming as a clear underdog in the runoff, reducing the likelihood of a late upset.

News

AINews Summary

Julia Letlow is the front-runner in Louisiana’s Republican Senate runoff after leading the primary with 45% of the vote. John Fleming advanced too, while Bill Cassidy was eliminated. Letlow has Trump’s endorsement, but Fleming is arguing the runoff is still competitive. Letlow appears to have the edge after her strong first-round finish and Trump endorsement. Fleming’s runoff push and claims of a closer race may keep some uncertainty in the market.

Articles

SPSt. Paul Pioneer Press2 days ago

Paxton makes final pitch in Texas US Senate race against Cornyn

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is touting President Trump's endorsement ahead of his Republican primary runoff against Sen. John Cornyn.

WCWDIV ClickOnDetroit4 days ago

The Latest: Trump scores another win against Republican rival with Rep. Thomas Massie’s primary loss

President Donald Trump has scored another win against a Republican rival, dislodging Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky’s primary and knocking out one of his most outspoken critics on Capitol Hill.

NYNew York Post4 days ago

Rep. Thomas Massie ousted in Kentucky by Trump-backed Ed Gallrein

The contest for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District will go down as the most expensive primary race in US history, with more than $32 million spent on political ads, according to the firm AdImpact.

NNNBC News4 days ago

Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein unseats Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky GOP primary

Former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein has won the Republican primary in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District over Rep. Thomas Massie.

TNThe New York Times4 days ago

What to Know About the Republican Senate Primary in Alabama

Three leading contenders, including a Trump-backed congressman, are aiming to replace Senator Tommy Tuberville. The winner will be favored in November.

BRBaton Rouge Advocate2 days ago

Julia Letlow is favored to be Louisiana’s next senator

U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow is vying for the Republican Senate nomination in Louisiana against state Treasurer John Fleming, while farmer Jamie Davis faces off against business owner Gary Crockett

FNFox News5 days ago

Sen Bill Cassidy says voting to convict Trump 'may have cost me my seat'

Sen. Bill Cassidy defended his vote to convict President Donald Trump during his second impeachment trial after losing his Louisiana Senate seat to Trump-backed Rep. Julia Letlow.

SIStaten Island Advance6 days ago

Trump tightens grip on GOP with ‘disloyal’ Republican senator’s stunning defeat

“His disloyalty to the man who got him elected is now a part of legend, and it’s nice to see that his political career is OVER!”

AABC17News.com1 day ago

‘Senators are not happy’: How Trump pushed the GOP to the breaking point this week

By Adam Cancryn, CNN (CNN) — President Donald Trump’s relationship with Senate Republicans has hit a new low after a revolt over his $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization” fund surfaced deep divisions over the direction of the party and its priorities. Trump and his close allies were fuming over the rebuke on Friday, while on Capitol Hill,

Polls

Polling Average

40%30%20%10%0%

30.3%

26.4%

23.7%

J. Letlow

B. Cassidy

J. Fleming

Date (Start - End)	Spread	Letlow	Cassidy	Fleming
Polling Average	Letlow+3.8	30.3%	26.4%	23.7%
Quantus InsightsMay 6 - 7	Letlow+12.0	41.6%	19.6%	29.6%
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesMay 4 - 5	Letlow+6.0	32.0%	26.0%	21.0%
BDPCApr 28 - 30	Letlow+11.3	32.5%	20.5%	21.2%
Emerson CollegeApr 24 - 26	Fleming+1.4	26.9%	21.1%	28.3%
American Pulse Research & PollingMar 20 - 24	Letlow+6.0	30.5%	20.5%	24.5%
Harris, DeVille & AssociatesMar 13 - 19	Cassidy+11.0	34.0%	45.0%	21.0%
BDPCMar 16 - 17	Letlow+5.5	29.0%	19.7%	23.5%
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesMar 11 - 12	Letlow+1.0	27.0%	26.0%	19.0%
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesMar 11 - 12	Letlow+12.0	46.0%	34.0%	–
Public Opinion StrategiesMar 7 - 10	Cassidy+11.0	24.0%	35.0%	21.0%
Cor StrategiesFeb 20 - 24	Cassidy+13.0	15.0%	30.0%	17.0%
Quantus InsightsFeb 23 - 24	Fleming+9.6	24.6%	19.8%	34.2%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

Julia Letlow

Donald Trump

Donald Trump endorsed Julia Letlow in the Louisiana U.S. Senate race.

Learn more

John Fleming

Veterans For America First

Veterans For America First endorsed John Fleming.

Learn more

Bill Cassidy

National Republican Senatorial Committee

The National Republican Senatorial Committee endorsed Bill Cassidy for reelection.

Learn more

Fundraising

Total RaisedCash on Hand

May 12, 2026

$20M

$15M

$10M

$5M

J. Fleming

B. Cassidy

B. Miguez

K. Seiden

J. Emerson

S. Wyatt

E. Skrmetta

Candidate

Total Raised

Cash on Hand

Burn Rate (per month)

Last report

J. FlemingJohn Fleming

$11.25MContrib: $623.9K

$1.39MSpent: $9.88M

$617.5KLast period: $23.1K

PRE-PRIMARY · Apr 26, 2026

B. CassidyBill Cassidy

$6.73MContrib: $4.14M

$5.52MSpent: $7.79M

$487.0KLast period: $168.5K

PRE-PRIMARY · Apr 26, 2026

B. MiguezBlake Miguez

$6.18MContrib: $3.15M

$3.99MSpent: $2.19M

$145.9KLast period: $334.5K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

K. SeidenKathy Seiden

$1.20MContrib: $127.2K

$0Spent: $1.20M

$70.7KLast period: $0

TERMINATION REPORT · May 12, 2026

J. EmersonJulie Emerson

$688.9KContrib: $380.4K

$32.7KSpent: $656.2K

$43.7KLast period: -$104.7K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

S. WyattSammy Wyatt

$288.7KContrib: $103.2K

$4.2KSpent: $284.5K

$19.0KLast period: $6.3K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

E. SkrmettaEric Skrmetta

$67.8KContrib: $67.8K

$58.6KSpent: $9.2K

$612Last period: $67.8K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

Source: FEC

Who will win the 2026 Louisiana Senate Republican Primary?

Louisiana Republican Senate nominee?

OddsCurrent Odds

Upcoming Events

Latest Insights

John Fleming

Julia Letlow

John Fleming

News

Paxton makes final pitch in Texas US Senate race against Cornyn

The Latest: Trump scores another win against Republican rival with Rep. Thomas Massie’s primary loss

Rep. Thomas Massie ousted in Kentucky by Trump-backed Ed Gallrein

Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein unseats Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky GOP primary

What to Know About the Republican Senate Primary in Alabama

Julia Letlow is favored to be Louisiana’s next senator

Sen Bill Cassidy says voting to convict Trump 'may have cost me my seat'

Trump tightens grip on GOP with ‘disloyal’ Republican senator’s stunning defeat

‘Senators are not happy’: How Trump pushed the GOP to the breaking point this week

Polls

Endorsements

Fundraising

Related races

LA-01 Republican nominee?

LA-01 Democratic nominee?

LA-06 House winner?

LA-02 House winner?

Upcoming Events

Latest Insights

John Fleming

Julia Letlow

John Fleming

News

Paxton makes final pitch in Texas US Senate race against Cornyn

The Latest: Trump scores another win against Republican rival with Rep. Thomas Massie’s primary loss

Rep. Thomas Massie ousted in Kentucky by Trump-backed Ed Gallrein

Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein unseats Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky GOP primary

What to Know About the Republican Senate Primary in Alabama

Julia Letlow is favored to be Louisiana’s next senator

Sen Bill Cassidy says voting to convict Trump 'may have cost me my seat'

Trump tightens grip on GOP with ‘disloyal’ Republican senator’s stunning defeat

‘Senators are not happy’: How Trump pushed the GOP to the breaking point this week

Polls

Endorsements

Fundraising

Related races

LA-01 Republican nominee?

LA-01 Democratic nominee?

LA-06 House winner?

LA-02 House winner?