Who will win the 2026 Louisiana Senate Republican Primary first round?

AP confirms Bill Cassidy was eliminated and Julia Letlow will face John Fleming in the June 27 runoff, validating the market’s sharp repricing around the Trump-backed lane. That matters because the race has now moved from a three-way first-round contest to a two-candidate runoff with Letlow still the clear favorite.

John Fleming’s first-round win odds rose sharply to 9% from 4.7% in the last hour, extending the primary-day move as fresh AP/Reuters coverage keeps the Trump-vs.-Cassidy race in focus. That matters because it modestly strengthens the anti-Cassidy lane and keeps a runoff upset path alive, even with Julia Letlow still the clear favorite.

Fleming’s first-round win price rose from 5% to 9% in the last hour, extending a sharp primary-day repricing as fresh AP reporting keeps Trump’s anti-Cassidy push in focus. That matters for traders because the market is still centered on whether the anti-incumbent lane can force Cassidy out of the top two.