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Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Senate Republican Special Primary?

Aug 12, 2026, 3:59am UTC, in 28 daysLast updated: Jul 16, 2026, 1:08 AM UTC

South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?

$294.4K

AUG 12, 2026

Primary Election

Party selects its nominee.

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OddsCurrent Odds

Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.

Total volume

$294.4K

24h volume

$30.5K

R. Fry58%

R. Norman21%

D. Nordone10%

No chart data available yet.

source: Kalshi

Upcoming Events

November

TUE 3

South Carolina 2026 general election

Latest Insights

South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?

Mark Lynch has raised $5,854,499.63 this cycle, while Russell Fry leads the latest odds for the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary.

South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?

Nordone’s odds jumped to 7% after AP reported she was sworn in to fill Lindsey Graham’s Senate seat and that the special-primary filing window opens July 21, giving her a more visible foothold in the race.

7%5%

South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?

AP says South Carolina Republicans are moving into a one-week special primary filing window starting July 21, keeping Mark Lynch, Russell Fry and Pamela Evette in a fresh open-seat scramble that could reprice the market quickly.

News

AINews Summary

South Carolina Republicans will pick their Senate nominee in an August 11 special primary, with a runoff possible on August 25. Darline Graham Nordone has been sworn in temporarily, while several prominent Republicans are still weighing bids. Democrat Annie Andrews is already running, but the seat is described as strongly Republican-leaning. The primary field is still unsettled, so nominee odds remain fluid. The Republican-leaning seat suggests the GOP nominee will likely be favored in the broader race.

Articles

GNGreenville News2 days ago

Darline Graham Nordone will fill her brother's vacant Senate seat

Gov. Henry McMaster announced his decision to appoint Darline Graham Nordone to the Senate during a press conference on July 13.

F4FOX 4 News1 day ago

Darline Graham Nordone sworn in to finish her brother Sen. Lindsey Graham's term

Darline Graham Nordone, the sister of the late South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham as sworn in by the Senate Tuesday afternoon.

WWTOP1 day ago

Darline Graham, sister of late Sen. Lindsey Graham, has been sworn in to finish his term

Darline Graham, the sister of the late South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, was sworn in by the Senate on Tuesday afternoon — filling the seat just three days after her brother’s death.

GNGreenville News1 day ago

Sen. Darline Graham Nordone sworn in, replacing late brother Lindsey

Darline Graham Nordone becomes the first woman to represent South Carolina in the U.S. Senate after being sworn to replace her late brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham.

AABC17News.com1 day ago

Darline Graham, Lindsey Graham’s sister, sworn in to serve remainder of his Senate term

By Morgan Rimmer, CNN (CNN) — Darline Graham, the late Sen. Lindsey Graham’s younger sister, was sworn into the Senate on Tuesday to serve out the remainder of her brother’s term after his sudden death over the weekend. She was appointed to the seat by South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster and will remain in the

AAL.com2 days ago

Trump reveals his pick to replace Lindsey Graham as South Carolina governor prepares announcement

The interim senator could be sworn in on Wednesday.

SRSanta Rosa Press Democrat1 day ago

Darline Graham will be sworn in to fill her brother Lindsey's term

The sister of the late South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham will soon be sworn in to fill the seat, just three days after her brother’s death. The Senate ceremony is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.

Polls

Polling Average

60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

51.0%

20.9%

12.8%

L. Graham

M. Lynch

P. Dans

Date (Start - End)	Spread	Graham	Lynch	Dans
Polling Average	Graham+30.1	51.0%	20.9%	12.8%
InsiderAdvantageJun 6 - 7	Graham+30.2	51.2%	21.0%	–
Trafalgar GroupJun 5 - 7	Graham+19.8	49.2%	29.4%	–
The Public Sentiment InstituteJun 3 - 4	Graham+25.7	53.4%	27.7%	–
The Citadel School of Humanities and Social SciencesMay 21 - 31	Graham+10.0	46.0%	36.0%	–
Trafalgar GroupMay 21 - 24	Graham+23.7	52.0%	28.3%	–
InsiderAdvantageMay 13 - 14	Graham+42.7	56.0%	13.3%	–
Quantus InsightsOct 1 - 4	Graham+43.0	58.0%	15.0%	7.0%
Big Data PollSep 26 - 29	Graham+24.2	46.3%	4.1%	22.1%
Quantus InsightsJun 10 - 13	Graham+25.0	48.0%	23.0%	–
Big Data PollJun 8 - 11	Graham+38.7	49.5%	10.8%	9.2%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

Russell Fry

Lindsey Graham

Lindsey Graham endorsed Russell Fry for Senate re-election.

Learn more

Ralph Norman

Jim DeMint

Jim DeMint endorsed Ralph Norman for governor of South Carolina.

Learn more

Nikki Haley

Nikki Haley endorsed Ralph Norman for governor of South Carolina.

Learn more

Fundraising

Total RaisedCash on Hand

May 20, 2026

$10M

$7.5M

$5M

$2.5M

M. Lynch

R. Fry

N. Mace

R. Norman

Candidate

Total Raised

Cash on Hand

Burn Rate (per month)

Last report

M. LynchMark Lynch

$5.85MContrib: $606.6K

$1.35MSpent: $4.50M

$265.0KLast period: $119.3K

PRE-PRIMARY · May 20, 2026

R. FryRussell Fry

$1.58MContrib: $1.34M

$957.3KSpent: $1.19M

$69.9KLast period: $143.5K

PRE-PRIMARY · May 20, 2026

N. MaceNancy Mace

$452.9KContrib: $182.7K

$184.9KSpent: $932.6K

$62.2KLast period: $0

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

R. NormanRalph Norman

$83.3KContrib: $83.1K

$90.3KSpent: $587.6K

$39.2KLast period: $53

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

Source: FEC

Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Senate Republican Special Primary?

South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?

OddsCurrent Odds

Upcoming Events

Latest Insights

South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?

South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?

South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?

News

Darline Graham Nordone will fill her brother's vacant Senate seat

Darline Graham Nordone sworn in to finish her brother Sen. Lindsey Graham's term

Darline Graham, sister of late Sen. Lindsey Graham, has been sworn in to finish his term

Sen. Darline Graham Nordone sworn in, replacing late brother Lindsey

Darline Graham, Lindsey Graham’s sister, sworn in to serve remainder of his Senate term

Trump reveals his pick to replace Lindsey Graham as South Carolina governor prepares announcement

Darline Graham will be sworn in to fill her brother Lindsey's term

Polls

Endorsements

Fundraising

Related races

South Carolina Senate winner?

SC-06 House winner?

South Carolina Governor winner?

SC-01 House winner?

Upcoming Events

Latest Insights

South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?

South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?

South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?

News

Darline Graham Nordone will fill her brother's vacant Senate seat

Darline Graham Nordone sworn in to finish her brother Sen. Lindsey Graham's term

Darline Graham, sister of late Sen. Lindsey Graham, has been sworn in to finish his term

Sen. Darline Graham Nordone sworn in, replacing late brother Lindsey

Darline Graham, Lindsey Graham’s sister, sworn in to serve remainder of his Senate term

Trump reveals his pick to replace Lindsey Graham as South Carolina governor prepares announcement

Darline Graham will be sworn in to fill her brother Lindsey's term

Polls

Endorsements

Fundraising

Related races

South Carolina Senate winner?

SC-06 House winner?

South Carolina Governor winner?

SC-01 House winner?