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NOV 8, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
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Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Oct 16, 2026, 11:28 PM UTC.
source: Kalshi
Compare the candidates' live odds. Updated .
| Candidate | Live odds |
|---|---|
| 73% | |
| 27% |
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
Texas Senate polling now shows James Talarico slightly ahead of Ken Paxton, making the race look very close. Trump has backed Paxton while also criticizing him, and Republican groups are pouring money into the contest. Recent polling appears to modestly improve Democratic odds, but the race remains tight. Heavy Republican spending and Trump’s involvement could keep the market volatile.
Texas Democrats are polling competitively in key races. One expert says Trump's unpopularity, Ken Paxton's weaknesses and a Democratic enthusiasm edge could all help end the party's statewide losing streak.
President Trump ripped RINO John Cornyn and "Super RINO Karl Rove" on Thursday for their attempts to derail Republican Ken Paxton in Texas.
A native Texan, Menard, is a medical PAC director and his former chief of staff.
Texas Democratic Senate hopeful James Talarico’s campaign says it raised $64 million in the third quarter of 2026, a staggering haul that would set a new record.
NY Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will join Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, while Vice President JD Vance will headline a rally elsewhere in the state. Follow the latest updates.
Talarico engaged in a debate with six voters from across the political spectrum, with each coming to the stage to sit down across the table from him.
By Eric Bradner, CNN (CNN) — James Talarico’s bid to become the first Democrat in a generation to win statewide in Texas after three decades of disappointments is in its final stretch. The Democratic state representative is set to appear on CNN at 8 p.m. ET Wednesday for a joint town hall with Jubilee, moderated
The Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to win a majority.
Vice President JD Vance campaigned for Ken Paxton as James Talarico attacked the attorney general for taxpayer-funded travel ahead of a CNN town hall in Texas.
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
