$13.4K
NOV 8, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Deposit $20, get $50 on Polymarket
Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Oct 2, 2026, 6:58 PM UTC.
source: Kalshi
Compare the candidates' live odds. Updated .
| Candidate | Live odds |
|---|---|
| 75% | |
| 24% |
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
Texas Senate polling now shows James Talarico slightly ahead of Ken Paxton, making the race look very close. Trump has backed Paxton while also criticizing him, and Republican groups are pouring money into the contest. Recent polling appears to modestly improve Democratic odds, but the race remains tight. Heavy Republican spending and Trump’s involvement could keep the market volatile.
He touted truck tariffs in Denton as the Senate race and economic concerns loom large.
Texas Republicans reportedly spent an average of $7.7 million per day in support of Ken Paxton's senatorial campaign.
In private conversations, Republicans are talking a big game about how they’re not worried about November’s midterms.
Ken Paxton's approval rating continues to slip in his battle against James Talarico to keep a Republican stronghold on Texas.
President Donald Trump is headed to Oklahoma and Texas on Thursday as part of his midterm campaigning. See his 2018 record in the states.
Polls have shown a tight race between Paxton and Democratic candidate James Talarico.
CNN data guru Harry Enten has some brutal numbers for the man Trump has backed in a deep-red Senate race.
The Texas Democrat is vying to build the broadest coalition possible to beat Ken Paxton. “Democrats should reclaim the principles of capitalism," he tells TIME.
When Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton launched his campaign for Senate last year, he skipped the local pageantry. Instead, records show, the conservative firebrand announced his bid on Fox News,...
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
