$10.4K
NOV 8, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Deposit $20, get $50 on Polymarket
Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Aug 19, 2026, 6:53 AM UTC.
source: Kalshi
Compare the candidates' live odds. Updated .
| Candidate | Live odds |
|---|---|
| 88% | |
| 18% |
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
Ken Paxton has agreed to debate James Talarico, and recent polls cited in coverage show a very close race. Paxton is the Republican nominee after a large primary win, while Nathan Johnson has secured the Democratic nomination for Texas attorney general. The close polling and confirmed debate add attention to the race but do not clearly favor either party. Paxton’s strong primary win supports Republicans, while the tight general-election numbers keep uncertainty high.
James Talarico has hired a former member of Sen. John Cornyn's staff to work on his Senate campaign.
A longtime Republican policy aide has joined Talarico’s Senate campaign and urged GOP voters to reject Ken Paxton.
The saga of a missing $1,000 Montblanc pen has returned to Texas politics, this time in the high-stakes Senate race between Paxton and Talarico.
Recent polling tells Texas campaigns what they need to do to win, pollsters write.
Democrat James Talarico growing discontent with the Texas data center boom as an opening against Republican opponent Ken Paxton in the Senate race.
Abdul El-Sayed made history this month in Michigan by becoming the first Muslim nominated by the Democratic Party to run for the US Senate.
Get live updates and the latest news as Karoline Leavitt says she will depart as Trump’s White House press secretary and Tuesday’s primaries reveal Democratic divisions.
The new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey of Texas likely voters showed that Paxton and Talarico are in a tight race for the Senate seat.
Abdul El-Sayed's narrow Michigan Senate primary win over Rep. Haley Stevens sparked the former slugger's remarks.
Republicans can say "goodbye" to their gains among Hispanic and Latino men from 2024, CNN's data analyst Harry Enten said.
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
