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Who will win the 2026 Florida Governor Republican Primary?

Aug 19, 2026, 3:59am UTC, in 79 daysLast updated: Jun 1, 2026, 10:23 AM UTC

Florida Republican Governor nominee?

$5.0M

AUG 19, 2026

Primary Election

Party selects its nominee.

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OddsCurrent Odds

Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.

Total volume

$5.0M

24h volume

$25.7K

B. Donalds89%

J. Fishback9%

J. Collins4%

Loading chart data...

source: Kalshi

Upcoming Events

August

TUE 18

Florida 2026 primary

November

TUE 3

Florida 2026 general election

Latest Insights

Jimmy Patronis

24H0%

Jimmy Patronis has raised $3,132,076.59 this cycle, while Byron Donalds holds the lead in the latest odds for the Florida Republican Governor nominee race.

News

AINews Summary

Byron Donalds remains the clear leader in the Florida Republican governor primary. James Fishback’s recent marriage is the only new Florida-specific campaign note, and it does not appear to change the race. No new polling, endorsements, or candidate changes were reported. The market still appears centered on Donalds as the clear frontrunner. Fishback’s personal news is unlikely to move odds much without new campaign developments.

Articles

TRThe Ringer3 days ago

The Death of the Texas Political Machine That Bush Built

Ken Paxton routed John Cornyn in this week’s Texas GOP Senate primary runoff. The result is a stunning rejection of a political lifer—and the final blow to George W. Bush’s hold over his home state.

NYNew York Post3 days ago

Rep. Frederica Wilson, 83, will retire from Congress

WASHINGTON — Rep. Frederica Wilson (D-Fla.) became the latest member of Congress to announce her retirement during a new interview published Friday after having furiously denied talk of her stepping down as a "crazy rumor."

PPPortland Press Herald3 days ago

Platner is outraising - and outspending - Susan Collins

Platner's heavy spending to date reflects the contentious Democratic primary with Gov. Janet Mills, who dropped out of the race April 30, and his likely November matchup with Collins.

ACAugusta Chronicle3 days ago

GA primary election 2026 debates Sunday-Monday ahead of runoff

Atlanta Press Club is hosting debates for multiple Georgia races ahead of the runoff election. Which races? When? How to stream online?

TGThe Gateway Pundit13 days ago

Dirty Brad Raffensperger Loses GOP Gubernatorial Primary in Peach Tree State Shellacking!

Dirty Brad Raffensperger, the corrupt Georgia Secretary of State, came in a distant third in the Republican Party gubernatorial primary on Tuesday night.

NYNew York Post8 days ago

James Fishback marries mystery woman 3 months after ditching crypto ex

Fishback, 31, a darling of Gen Z MAGA men, shared a picture of himself and the unknown blonde woman named Valeria on Saturday standing before the altar in a Catholic church in Wildwood, FL.

HCHartford Courant18 days ago

New Mexico politicians grapple with oil windfall from Iran war

A global oil bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz has created a financial windfall on the other side of the world in New Mexico that is both enviable and politically sensitive in a Democratic-dominated state.

NNewsmax4 days ago

Calif. Gov. Newsom Signs Law to Bar Federal Election Meddling

Saying he expected President Donald Trump's administration to try to meddle in the midterms this year, Gov. Gavin Newsom signed legislation Wednesday that aims to shield California elections from federal interference.

TBThe Boston Herald19 days ago

From 'The Hills' villain to LA mayoral contender

“The Hills” reality television show villain Spencer Pratt is running for mayor of Los Angeles, positioning himself as a savior and promising to tackle the city's disorder and dysfunction.

Polls

Polling Average

50%40%30%20%10%0%

41.0%

18.9%

6.2%

B. Donalds

C. DeSantis

J. Collins

P. Renner

C. Burkett

Date (Start - End)	Spread	Donalds	DeSantis	Collins	Renner	Burkett
Polling Average	Donalds+22.1	41.0%	18.9%	6.2%	3.1%	0.4%
Change ResearchMay 13 - 16	Donalds+40.0	48.0%	–	8.0%	3.0%	–
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesApr 26 - 30	Donalds+47.0	54.0%	–	7.0%	2.0%	–
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion ResearchMar 25 - Apr 13	Donalds+31.0	38.0%	–	6.0%	7.0%	–
Tarrance GroupMar 30 - Apr 2	Donalds+44.0	50.0%	–	6.0%	3.0%	–
Emerson CollegeMar 29 - 31	Donalds+36.8	43.5%	6.7%	4.3%	2.0%	0.5%
Emerson CollegeMar 29 - 31	Donalds+42.3	46.4%	–	4.1%	2.7%	0.3%
The American PromiseFeb 23 - 26	Donalds+40.0	44.0%	–	4.0%	2.0%	–
University of North Florida Public Opinion Research LabFeb 16 - 20	Donalds+4.0	28.0%	24.0%	3.0%	0.0%	–
University of North Florida Public Opinion Research LabFeb 16 - 20	Donalds+27.0	31.0%	–	4.0%	1.0%	–
Targoz Market ResearchFeb 13 - 16	Donalds+18.0	33.0%	–	15.0%	9.0%	–
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyJan 8 - 13	Donalds+30.0	37.0%	–	7.0%	4.0%	–
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesJan 4 - 6	Donalds+13.0	39.0%	26.0%	–	1.0%	–

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Fundraising

Total RaisedCash on Hand

Mar 31, 2026

$5M

$3.8M

$2.5M

$1.3M

J. Patronis

B. Donalds

M. Gaetz

Candidate

Total Raised

Cash on Hand

Burn Rate (per month)

Last report

J. PatronisJimmy Patronis

$3.13MContrib: $3.04M

$507.1KSpent: $2.62M

$175.0KLast period: $139.2K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

B. DonaldsByron Donalds

$735.6KContrib: $587.8K

$418.5KSpent: $2.06M

$137.1KLast period: $14.2K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

M. GaetzMatt Gaetz

$176.4KContrib: -$82

$44.5KSpent: $650.0K

$43.3KLast period: $0

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

Endorsements

Who will win the 2026 Florida Governor Republican Primary?

Florida Republican Governor nominee?

OddsCurrent Odds

Upcoming Events

Latest Insights

Jimmy Patronis

News

The Death of the Texas Political Machine That Bush Built

Rep. Frederica Wilson, 83, will retire from Congress

​Platner is outraising - and outspending - Susan Collins

GA primary election 2026 debates Sunday-Monday ahead of runoff

Dirty Brad Raffensperger Loses GOP Gubernatorial Primary in Peach Tree State Shellacking!

James Fishback marries mystery woman 3 months after ditching crypto ex

New Mexico politicians grapple with oil windfall from Iran war

Calif. Gov. Newsom Signs Law to Bar Federal Election Meddling

From 'The Hills' villain to LA mayoral contender

Polls

Fundraising

Related races

FL-16 Republican nominee?

FL-06 Republican nominee?

Florida Governor winner?

Florida Republican Senate nominee?

Upcoming Events

Latest Insights

Jimmy Patronis

News

The Death of the Texas Political Machine That Bush Built

Rep. Frederica Wilson, 83, will retire from Congress

​Platner is outraising - and outspending - Susan Collins

GA primary election 2026 debates Sunday-Monday ahead of runoff

Dirty Brad Raffensperger Loses GOP Gubernatorial Primary in Peach Tree State Shellacking!

James Fishback marries mystery woman 3 months after ditching crypto ex

New Mexico politicians grapple with oil windfall from Iran war

Calif. Gov. Newsom Signs Law to Bar Federal Election Meddling

From 'The Hills' villain to LA mayoral contender

Polls

Fundraising

Related races

FL-16 Republican nominee?

FL-06 Republican nominee?

Florida Governor winner?

Florida Republican Senate nominee?

Platner is outraising - and outspending - Susan Collins

Platner is outraising - and outspending - Susan Collins