$384.2K
JUN 2, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
A new poll in the final two weeks before California’s June 2 primary shows Steve Hilton and Xavier Becerra essentially tied, with Chad Bianco still back in third. That keeps the top-two advance race tradable because the Republican lane and the Democratic lead are both still in play.
Hilton’s market price slipped from 28% to 25% after a new Los Angeles Times poll showed him effectively tied with Xavier Becerra and still ahead of Chad Bianco. That keeps the Republican lane and the top-two fight tradable heading into the June 2 primary.
Hilton’s market price has eased from 28% to 24% while fresh reporting says he is effectively tied with Xavier Becerra in the latest poll. That keeps the California governor primary top-two fight highly tradable, especially with Chad Bianco still well behind Hilton in the newest survey.
Xavier Becerra remains the main favorite in recent polling, but one cited survey has him essentially tied with Steve Hilton. The race is still volatile under California’s top-two system, with vote splitting and undecided voters leaving the first-place finish unsettled. Becerra still looks like the main favorite, but the tight polling and vote-splitting risk keep the market uncertain. Hilton’s proximity in one poll may slightly improve his chances of finishing first.
Democratic frontrunner Xavier Becerra is on top of the governor’s race with the support of 21% of likely voters. Republican candidate Steve Hilton led with 22%.
Just two weeks from Election Day, a new poll shows Steve Hilton narrowly leading Xavier Becerra in California’s crowded governor race.
The latest poll results come days after the final televised debate in the race for governor.
Bianco claims Gov. Gavin Newsom is boosting Steve Hilton’s campaign for an easy Dem win.
Riverside County Sheriff Bianco is running into the unforgiving math of California’s top-two election system, and the window has now closed.
Becerra, a front-runner for California governor, has a history of blocking police accountability and seeking to uphold the death penalty.
Villaraigosa is not about to put on a MAGA hat. He called Trump a "threat to democracy" in the same interview. But he is also being realistic about the problems facing California.
In the governor’s race, more than 60 candidates are on the ballot, creating a very fluid situation. The mayoral race isn’t any better.
Alameda resident Barack Denzel Obama Shaw represents one of the most unique names on Californian's primary ballot in 2026
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California
Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California endorsed Xavier Becerra for California governor.
Democratic Assemblymember Nick Schultz
Democratic Assemblymember Nick Schultz endorsed Tom Steyer for California governor.
Democratic Assemblymember Corey Jackson
Corey Jackson endorsed Tom Steyer for California governor.
California Republican Assembly
California Republican Assembly endorsed Chad Bianco for governor.
California Teachers Association
California Teachers Association supported Eric Swalwell’s gubernatorial campaign before suspending that support.
California Service Employees International Union
The California Service Employees International Union supported Eric Swalwell’s gubernatorial campaign before suspending that support.
California Federation of Labor Unions
California Federation of Labor Unions endorsed Antonio Villaraigosa for California governor.
E. SwalwellEric SwalwellK. PorterKatie PorterX. BecerraXavier BecerraSource: FEC
