$14.20
NOV 7, 2028Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
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Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Sep 9, 2026, 7:38 PM UTC.
source: Kalshi
Compare the candidates' live odds. Updated .
| Candidate | Live odds |
|---|---|
| 42% | |
| 34% | |
| 5% |
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
The biggest new item is Trump’s planned two-night appearance at the Republican convention in Dallas. The rest of the recent news is about other GOP races and general party activity, with no direct Iowa caucus developments reported. These updates appear to have little direct effect on the Iowa caucus market. With no Iowa-specific movement reported, odds likely stay driven by existing expectations.
Florida's failed U.S. Senate candidate Alexander Vindman is planning to give away millions in campaign funds to fight President Trump.
Over the last year or so, President Donald Trump has sometimes pointed to Vice President JD Vance as his preference for the 2028 Republican presidential
Get live updates and the latest news as Karoline Leavitt says she will depart as Trump’s White House press secretary and Tuesday’s primaries reveal Democratic divisions.
EXCLUSIVE — Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) joins Democrats to cap insulin at $35 per month for private insurers amid a tough reelection campaign.
On Friday night, President Trump traveled to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, to hold a rally with GOP Senator Darline Graham.
President Trump on Friday traveled to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, to hold a rally with GOP Senator Darline Graham.
President Donald Trump is holding a rally in Myrtle Beach today in support of U.S. Sen. Darline Graham ahead of the Republican primary runoff for Senate.
Trump’s “Tremendous Champion” Cory Mills risks losing his title in Tuesday’s Florida primary.
Canada tariffs on roughly $20 billion in U.S. goods took effect, escalating the trade war between Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.
President Trump on Tuesday previewed this week's RNC convention and confirmed that he will deliver a speech on both nights of the convention alongside…
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
