$4.4K
NOV 7, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
Total volume
$4.4K
24h volume
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source: Kalshi
The endorsement adds another high-profile DFL signal for Flanagan in a primary that is already shaping the general-election field; it matters because Minnesota Senate control still looks heavily Democratic, so shifts in the party nomination could affect who the market expects to emerge in November.
Republican Party odds in the Minnesota State Senate winner market fell to 8.5% as reporting highlighted the Senate’s assault-weapons-ban vote and the chamber’s narrow DFL edge. That keeps control looking structurally Democratic and makes any further GOP rebound in this market harder to justify.
Republican Party's odds are now 14%, past the previous low of 22%.
Minnesota Democrats kept a one-vote Senate majority through the 2026 session and passed a major budget package before adjournment. The 2026 race is still open, with Peggy Flanagan and Angie Craig vying for the Democratic nomination and Michele Tafoya leading Republicans. The one-vote Democratic majority suggests control is still highly competitive and could shift in 2026. The open-seat race keeps the market uncertain, with no clear new edge from the latest news.
Mike Collins, Buddy Carter and Derek Dooley are competing for the Republican nomination to face Sen. Jon Ossoff in the midterm election.
President Donald Trump isn’t on the ballot this year, but with roughly six months before Election Day, he’ll still likely be the biggest factor in determining the fortunes of the Republican Party
Technically, the Legislature didn’t have to pass any bills this year as members finalized a two-year budget in 2025.
Get live updates and the latest news as Trump arrives in China for his summit with Xi Jinping and the Nebraska 2nd Congressional District Democratic primary remains too close to call.
Democrats face an uphill fight as they seek to unseat Gov. Jim Pillen, who is running for another term in the solidly Republican state.
The RNC is hiring election integrity directors in 17 battleground states ahead of the 2026 midterms, launching a multimillion-dollar push to recruit poll workers and watchers.
The Minneapolis Democrat, whose district was targeted by Trump’s ICE surge, hailed Flanagan for having “the courage to stand up to Donald Trump.”
Election season is heating up with two congressional candidates securing DFL endorsements over the weekend. Incumbent Rep. Ilhan Omar and former state Sen. Matt Little won party endorsements in their respective congressional district races.
Democrats worry nominees like Graham Platner in Maine could jeopardize winnable Senate races, even as the party eyes a favorable 2026 map.
The 2026 session of the Minnesota legislature came to an end without approval of Democrat gun control, immigration, and Rochester sales tax proposals.
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
