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Who will win the 2026 New York District 17 US House Democratic Primary?

Jun 30, 2026, 12:00pm UTC, 26 days agoLast updated: Jun 23, 2026, 10:23 PM UTC

NY-17 Democratic nominee?

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JUN 30, 2026

Primary Election

Party selects its nominee.

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OddsCurrent Odds

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Total volume

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24h volume

$37.0K

C. Conley100%

J. Reinmann1%

J. Cappello1%

No chart data available yet.

source: Kalshi

Upcoming Events

November

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New York 2026 general election

News

AINews Summary

Cait Conley has secured the Democratic nomination in New York’s 17th District and will challenge Rep. Mike Lawler. The seat is widely seen as highly competitive, with recent polling cited as favorable to Conley. Lawler’s campaign also faces fresh scrutiny after he disclosed a decade-old drunk driving arrest. Conley’s primary win removes nomination uncertainty and keeps Democrats positioned as competitive in the seat. The polling and market references suggest a modestly stronger outlook for Democrats, though the race remains close.

Articles

RDRochester Democrat and Chronicle1 month ago

Cait Conley and Mike Lawler battle in NY-17

Cait Conley and Rep. Mike Lawler will square off in New York's 17th Congressional District. Who will best define the Hudson Valley's political center?

UTUSA TODAY1 month ago

Cait Conley wins Democratic primary to face Rep. Mike Lawler in NY

Democrat Cait Conley cruised to victory in a New York primary that vaulted the combat veteran into a faceoff against Republican Rep. Mike Lawler.

NNewsweek1 month ago

Cait Conley’s Chances of Beating Mike Lawler to Flip GOP-Held Seat in NY

Conley secured the Democratic nomination to face off against Lawler in one of the most competitive races of the 2026 midterms.

CNCBS News1 month ago

Cait Conley wins NY-17 Democratic primary, CBS News projects

Democrat Cait Conley will challenge Republican Rep. Mike Lawler in the battle for New York's 17th Congressional District, which encompasses many of New York City's northern suburbs.

NNewsweek10 days ago

Mike Lawler Reveals DWAI Arrest As He Faces Swing Seat Test

A key New York House race sharpens focus over a past drunk driving arrest, with polling and forecasts shaping the midterm contest.

NNewsBreak1 month ago

Mamdani won big, but it's a mistake to think all Democrats swung left: ANALYSIS

All three Mamdani-backed candidates in New York City won their races.

FFortune1 month ago

Mamdani's picks sweep New York City's congressional primaries, ousting two incumbents

The democratic socialist mayor's endorsed candidates won all three New York City congressional primaries Tuesday, signaling a leftward lurch in the city.

NYNew York Post1 month ago

US Army veteran wins Dem primary to face GOP NY Rep. Mike Lawler in key toss-up race

Cait Conley won the crowded Democratic primary Tuesday and will face Republican Rep. Mike Lawler in the general election.

RDRochester Democrat and Chronicle1 month ago

Beth Davidson is best for NY-17 Democrats

Beth Davidson is the right choice to take on Republican Congressman Mike Lawler in the midterms.

Polls

Polling Average

30%20%10%0%

25.9%

21.7%

10%

C. Conley

B. Davidson

P. Chatzky

E. Phillips-Staley

M. Sacks

J. Cappello

Date (Start - End)	Spread	Conley	Davidson	Chatzky	Phillips-Staley	Sacks	Cappello
Polling Average	Conley+4.1	25.9%	21.7%	10.0%	9.0%	2.6%	1.0%
Public Policy PollingJun 15 - 16	Conley+14.0	33.0%	19.0%	–	14.0%	5.0%	1.0%
Tavern ResearchJun 12 - 16	Conley+11.0	34.0%	23.0%	–	13.0%	1.0%	1.0%
Tavern ResearchJun 12 - 16	Conley+13.0	35.0%	22.0%	–	12.0%	–	–
Global Strategy GroupMay 7 - 12	Conley+7.0	29.0%	22.0%	–	6.0%	4.0%	2.0%
Data for ProgressApr 17 - 24	Davidson+11.0	15.0%	26.0%	–	8.0%	–	–
Impact ResearchFeb 24 - 26	Davidson+6.0	17.0%	23.0%	8.0%	5.0%	1.0%	1.0%
Lake Research PartnersJan 27 - Feb 1	Conley+1.0	18.0%	17.0%	12.0%	5.0%	2.0%	0.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

Cait Conley

American Federation of Teachers

American Federation of Teachers endorsed Cait Conley in the NY-17 Democratic primary.

Who will win the 2026 New York District 17 US House Democratic Primary?

NY-17 Democratic nominee?

OddsCurrent Odds

Upcoming Events

News

Cait Conley and Mike Lawler battle in NY-17

Cait Conley wins Democratic primary to face Rep. Mike Lawler in NY

Cait Conley’s Chances of Beating Mike Lawler to Flip GOP-Held Seat in NY

Cait Conley wins NY-17 Democratic primary, CBS News projects

Mike Lawler Reveals DWAI Arrest As He Faces Swing Seat Test

Mamdani won big, but it's a mistake to think all Democrats swung left: ANALYSIS

Mamdani's picks sweep New York City's congressional primaries, ousting two incumbents

US Army veteran wins Dem primary to face GOP NY Rep. Mike Lawler in key toss-up race

Beth Davidson is best for NY-17 Democrats

Polls

Endorsements

Fundraising

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Upcoming Events

News

Cait Conley and Mike Lawler battle in NY-17

Cait Conley wins Democratic primary to face Rep. Mike Lawler in NY

Cait Conley’s Chances of Beating Mike Lawler to Flip GOP-Held Seat in NY

Cait Conley wins NY-17 Democratic primary, CBS News projects

Mike Lawler Reveals DWAI Arrest As He Faces Swing Seat Test

Mamdani won big, but it's a mistake to think all Democrats swung left: ANALYSIS

Mamdani's picks sweep New York City's congressional primaries, ousting two incumbents

US Army veteran wins Dem primary to face GOP NY Rep. Mike Lawler in key toss-up race

Beth Davidson is best for NY-17 Democrats

Polls

Endorsements

Fundraising

Related races

New York Governor winner?

NY-21 House winner?

NY-17 House winner?

NY-11 House winner?