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JUN 6, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Fresh reporting says Mike Thompson’s once-easy reelection is now a real race, with Eric Jones driving the generational-change challenge in the redrawn district. That keeps the CA-04 first-place market trader-relevant because the contest is still a live Thompson-Jones fight rather than a settled incumbent lead.
Mike Thompson’s odds in the CA-04 primary: first place event are now 53%, above the prior high of 35.5%.
California Democrats are dealing with a broad set of primary challenges against long-serving House incumbents. The reporting also points to open seats from retirements and redistricting, plus voter frustration over affordability and Congress. Overall, it suggests a more competitive primary landscape. The news points to a more competitive and uncertain California primary environment overall. It does not identify a clear favorite in this district, but it suggests incumbents may face more pressure than usual.
The Kentucky primary pits Massie, one of the most conservative members of Congress, against Trump and many wealthy donors.
The Kentucky Republican's chances of winning his primary against a Trump-backed challenger have slipped sharply on prediction markets.
The challenges are part of a national wave reshaping the debate over generational power and the direction of the Democratic Party ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Representative Thomas Massie is slipping in a new poll as he fights for the Republican nomination in Kentucky’s 4th District.
Congressional incumbent seeks fifth two-year term in seat formerly held by Darrell Issa
Reality TV personality Spencer Pratt, long dismissed as a novelty contender, is gaining unexpected traction in Los Angeles’s mayoral race.
The president has endorsed retired Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein in what marks his most aggressive attempt to catapult a dissenter from the Republican Party.
Seven states have adopted new maps since last summer, as the simmering redistricting war between Democrats and Republicans continues.
Polls point to a close race between Massie and Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein in the Kentucky primary.
President Donald Trump is waging a retribution campaign against some fellow Republicans in the primary in Indiana.
E. JonesEric JonesM. ThompsonMike Thompson
R. RiehleRay Riehle
M. GhusarMandy Ghusar
S. BrownSharon BrownSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
