$3.4K
AUG 18, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
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Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Aug 19, 2026, 10:23 AM UTC.
source: Kalshi
Compare the candidates' live odds and fundraising. Updated .
| Candidate | Live odds | Funds raised |
|---|---|---|
| 100% | $725.7K |
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
Progressive Democrats have been winning primaries in several states, including Angie Nixon in Florida. Separate reporting says Democrats are outraising Republican incumbents in many competitive House races. The impact on this specific FL-08 nomination market is indirect and unclear. The news suggests a stronger progressive and fundraising environment for Democrats, but it does not directly identify a FL-08 nominee. Market effects for this nomination race look limited and mostly indirect.
President Trump and top GOP leaders are gathering in Dallas for a midterm convention, though some Republicans in competitive races are opting to skip it and campaign in their home districts or states.
These maps show that the redistricting battle President Trump initiated has so far had a particular impact on largely Black congressional districts in Republican-led states.
Progressive momentum has been a prominent storyline as Democrats look to flip control of the House and Senate next year. But how far will it go?
Democratic primary battles in Florida, Massachusetts and New Hampshire pit progressive candidates backed by Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren against AIPAC-supported moderates.
Newsweek analysis identifies the states where a revived America PAC could have the greatest impact in 2026.
An unprecedented gerrymandering effort led by Donald Trump—and internal divisions among Democrats—has made the Minority Leader’s path to victory harder than ever, Jason Zengerle reports.
President Donald Trump’s 2026 primary endorsement success rate remains high, but he has seen a growing number of losses stack up in recent weeks.
Antiestablishment fervor among grassroots organizers has made prognosticating harder for consultants and pollsters, and scandals are adding more volatility.
Republican Representative Andy Ogles of Tennessee, whom President Donald Trump had endorsed, lost his reelection bid on Thursday.
More than a dozen House Republicans are being outraised by their opponents ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Campaign finance totals for the 2026 cycle, including money raised, spent and cash on hand.
J. JenkinsJennifer Jenkins
C. ShockColby Shock
P. DellingerPaul DellingerSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
