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2026 Florida House Election Polls, Odds & Candidates

Name: 2026 Florida House Election Polls, Odds & Candidates — prediction market odds
Creator: kalshi

Election Day: Nov 3, 2026Market closes: Nov 6, 11:59pm ET (Nov 7, 4:59am UTC)

FL-14 House winner?

$104.8K

NOV 3, 2026

General Election

Voters choose the office holder.

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Race Snapshot

Compare the candidates' live odds and fundraising. Updated Sep 10, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC.

Candidate	Live odds	Funds raised
Kathy Castor	65%	$2.34M
Mike Beltran	36%	$2.12M

OddsLive Odds

Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Sep 10, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC.

Odds History

Total volume

$104.8K

24h volume

$682

K. Castor65%

M. Beltran36%

No chart data available yet.

source: Kalshi

Election Dates and Deadlines

Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.

November

TUE 3

Florida 2026 general election

November

FRI 6

Prediction market closes

Latest Race Updates

Key developments affecting the candidates, polls and prediction market odds.

FL-14 House winner?

Fresh reporting that Trump endorsed Mike Beltran lines up with a sharp one-hour move in Florida-14, but the market still has Kathy Castor favored, making this a useful repricing signal rather than a leadership change.

63%28%

Latest Election News

Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.

AINews Summary

The biggest update is that Florida’s redrawn 14th District is being described as more favorable to Republicans, with Trump having won it by a little over 10 points in 2024. Mike Beltran is now the GOP nominee against Kathy Castor, and he has softened some Trump branding on his campaign site. The redistricting news likely improves Republican chances in the district and adds pressure on Democrats. Beltran’s website changes seem more cosmetic than decisive, so the main market driver is still the new map.

Articles

BNBreitbart News Network16 hours ago

Unprecedented Spending Could Be Republicans' Midterm Trump Card

Never before has a president's political operation invested in a midterm the way President Trump and the MAGA movement are backing Republicans this year.

PPOLITICO8 days ago

Florida Republicans worry they won’t capture big redistricting gains

Republican hopes for Florida were much higher at the start of a tit-for-tat cycle that saw Republican- and Democratic-led states across the country engage in mid-decade redistricting.

NNNBC News5 months ago

Live updates: Ex-Pence aide to run for Congress as a Democrat

Get live updates and the latest news on the Trump administration as Ex-Mike Pence aide Olivia Troye announces a run for Congress as a Democrat and Rep. Eric Swalwell says he will resign from Congress amid sexual assault allegations.

TDThe Daily Beast8 days ago

GOP Candidate Scrubs Trump From Campaign Site in Fresh Snub

More and more Republican candidates are scrubbing the president from their campaign sites.

FNFox News4 months ago

Navy veteran Rocky Rochford hopes to unseat 20-year incumbent in Tampa Bay

Rocky Rochford spent 33 years in the US Navy, and now plans to bring that leadership experience to Congress, representing Florida's 14th district.

WWTOP4 months ago

Editorial Roundup: United States

Excerpts from recent editorials in the United States and abroad: ___ May 8 The Washington Post on Trump's second tariff defeat The Trump administration is…

AABC17News.com4 months ago

How Florida designed a US House map aiming to give Republicans four more seats

By Fredreka Schouten, Ethan Cohen, Renée Rigdon, CNN (CNN) — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has signed into law a map he designed to give Republicans an edge in as many as four seats now held by Democrats. State lawmakers approved the new boundaries just hours after the US Supreme Court issued a decision limiting the

TTCPalm4 months ago

A closer look at five key areas affected by Florida redistricting

Five Florida U.S. House seats represented by Democrats show dramatic shifts to the GOP based on the 2024 presidential election results.

AABC17News.com5 months ago

Swalwell and Gonzales resign from Congress under threat of expulsion

CNN By Annie Grayer, CNN (CNN) — Reps. Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales resigned from Congress Tuesday, moments before their House colleagues were prepared to set in motion their swift removal. The Democrat and Republican escaped the almost certain public embarrassment of an expulsion vote on the House floor. But while they narrowly avoided the

Campaign Fundraising

Campaign finance totals for the 2026 cycle, including money raised, spent and cash on hand.

Total RaisedCash on Hand

Jul 29, 2026

$2.5M

$1.9M

$1.3M

$625K

K. Castor

M. Beltran

Candidate

Total Raised

Cash on Hand

Burn Rate (per month)

Last report

K. CastorKathy Castor

$2.34MContrib: $2.33M

$1.74MSpent: $820.0K

$43.2KLast period: $378.6K

PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 29, 2026

M. BeltranMike Beltran

$2.12MContrib: $102.7K

$1.94MSpent: $176.9K

$9.3KLast period: $23.5K

PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 29, 2026

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

Polls
Endorsements

2026 Florida House Election Polls, Odds & Candidates

FL-14 House winner?

Race Snapshot

OddsLive Odds

Odds History

Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Race Updates

FL-14 House winner?

Latest Election News

Unprecedented Spending Could Be Republicans' Midterm Trump Card

Florida Republicans worry they won’t capture big redistricting gains

Live updates: Ex-Pence aide to run for Congress as a Democrat

GOP Candidate Scrubs Trump From Campaign Site in Fresh Snub

Navy veteran Rocky Rochford hopes to unseat 20-year incumbent in Tampa Bay

Editorial Roundup: United States

How Florida designed a US House map aiming to give Republicans four more seats

A closer look at five key areas affected by Florida redistricting

Swalwell and Gonzales resign from Congress under threat of expulsion

Campaign Fundraising

Related Races

Florida Governor winner?

Florida Senate winner?

FL-25 House winner?

FL-22 House winner?

Race Snapshot

Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Race Updates

FL-14 House winner?

Latest Election News

Unprecedented Spending Could Be Republicans' Midterm Trump Card

Florida Republicans worry they won’t capture big redistricting gains

Live updates: Ex-Pence aide to run for Congress as a Democrat

GOP Candidate Scrubs Trump From Campaign Site in Fresh Snub

Navy veteran Rocky Rochford hopes to unseat 20-year incumbent in Tampa Bay

Editorial Roundup: United States

How Florida designed a US House map aiming to give Republicans four more seats

A closer look at five key areas affected by Florida redistricting

Swalwell and Gonzales resign from Congress under threat of expulsion

Campaign Fundraising

Related Races

Florida Governor winner?

Florida Senate winner?

FL-25 House winner?

FL-22 House winner?