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JUN 9, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
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Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Busse’s nomination price ticked higher again, extending a multi-day climb in a crowded four-way primary. The move matters because the market is still repricing him as the clear favorite, even though recent reporting has mostly repeated the same race structure rather than adding a new catalyst. ([dailyinterlake.com](https://dailyinterlake.com/news/2026/may/08/four-dems-battle-for-dominance-in-upcoming-federal-primaries/?utm_source=openai))
Busse’s odds hit a fresh high after recent coverage kept the crowded Democratic primary in focus and as Sam Forstag’s AOC rally adds another visible but candidate-specific catalyst in the race. That keeps Busse the clear favorite, but the move is large enough to matter for traders repricing the nomination outcome.
That’s above the previous high of 64% for Ryan Busse in the Montana 1st District Democratic nominee race.
Steve Daines’ resignation is the biggest recent shift in the Montana Senate race, opening the field. Kurt Alme has filed and picked up Trump’s endorsement, while Seth Bodnar’s independent run adds another variable. Democrats say they will stick with party members, and four Democrats are in the primary. Daines’ exit makes the race more open and increases uncertainty. Alme’s Trump endorsement may strengthen Republicans, while Bodnar’s independent bid could complicate the overall vote picture.
A Journal columnist criticizes Deb Haaland’s gubernatorial campaign for sharing detailed property information about rival Sam Bregman’s family, raising questions about ethics, judgment and leadership in the high-stakes New Mexico governor primary.
Minutes before the Senate filing deadline, Senator Steve Daines withdrew his re-election bid and an ally jumped in. Even some fellow Republicans criticized the 11th-hour switch.
Newsom has spent 1 in 5 days traveling outside California in second term
Two-term GOP Sen. Steve Daines shocked Montana when he announced his retirement. Democrats worry a new independent candidate will split their party's vote.
U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin’s decision not to seek another term led to a cascade of candidates running for not just his seat, but several congressional districts.
Get a recap of Tuesday's local news stories from Billings Gazette.
Some state level Democrats aren’t willing to pave the way for an independent, even if they have a better shot at winning an already-uphill race.
By Manu Raju, CNN (CNN) — GOP Sen. Steve Daines made the last-minute decision to abruptly pull out of his Senate race to prevent Democrats from fielding a top recruit for the open Montana seat, according to two sources familiar with the matter. Daines was aware that if he withdrew too soon then Democrats would
A Highly Respected Criminal Prosecutor in my Administration, and distinguished Harvard Law School Graduate, Kurt knows the Wisdom and Courage it takes to ensure LAW AND ORDER, advocate for our Heroes in Law Enforcement, and strongly support our Military and Veterans, Trump wrote on Truth Social.
President Donald Trump has endorsed US Attorney Kurt Alme to run as the Republican contender for a Montana Senate seat, after the incumbent, Steve Daines, made the surprising announcement, minutes before the filing deadline that he wouldn’t run for re-election.
R. BusseRyan Busse
S. ForstagSam Forstag
R. ClevelandRussell ClevelandSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
