Race Rating
Likely Republican
Cook/270toWin 2026
Partisan lean: Republican
ClosedGeneral Election
2026 Montana House Election Polls, Odds & Candidates
Election Day: Recorded market close:
MT-01 House winner?
$964.9K
NOV 3, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Race Snapshot
Compare the candidates' saved odds, polling averages and fundraising. Updated .
| Candidate | Saved odds | Poll average | Funds raised |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 46.1% | $1.38M | |
| 42% | 44.2% | $1.30M |
OddsSaved odds
Prices saved with this edition; no automatic updates.
Odds History
Total volume
$964.9K
24h volume
$68.6K
source: Kalshi
Politics IQ
Structural race context from reviewed jurisdiction data
Montana 1st District · US House
Likely RepublicanRepublicanOpen seatDistrict contextCompetitive House rating
Seat Dynamics
Open seat
Incumbent: Ryan K. Zinke (R)
Election Rules
Primary Jun 2, 2026
Runoff: No
General: Nov 3, 2026
Why it matters
The district is rated Likely Republican and the seat is open, so candidate quality, turnout, and late-cycle spending may matter more than in a safe district.
Sources reviewed May 2, 2026 · Office of the Clerk · 270toWin/Cook · 270toWin · NCSL
Election Dates and Deadlines
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Latest Election News
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
AINews Summary
The biggest recent development is the Supreme Court’s decision to leave mail voting rules in place ahead of the midterms. In MT-01, Republicans have nominated Aaron Flint, while Democrats are making the district a priority and backing their effort with national resources. The Supreme Court ruling may slightly reduce uncertainty around voting rules, but it does not directly change the MT-01 partisan outlook. Flint’s nomination and Democratic targeting keep the seat competitive, with little clear shift from these reports alone.
Articles
MJMother Jones2 days ago
On Abortion Rights, Nevada Offers a Perfect Snapshot of the Midterms
2026 is all about winning ballot measures, Democratic trifectas, and Congress.
CNCable News Network7 days ago
How to tell if Democrats are heading for a wave election in the House
House Democrats appear to be flirting with one of the biggest popular vote wins in decades. Follow these races on election night to know how well Democrats are doing.
KIKalispell Inter Lake7 days ago
Forstag holds flurry of events in Flathead Valley
Before the sun crested the Swan Mountains on Monday, Democratic candidate Sam Forstag was meeting with a group of small business owners in a Whitefish bagel shop.
SRSanta Rosa Press Democrat15 days ago
The GOP counts on farmers’ votes. As a costly harvest season raises concerns, Trump speaks in Kansas
By JOEY CAPPELLETTI and JOHN HANNA TOPEKA, Kan. (AP) — Fifth-generation Kansas farmer Glenn Brunkow describes this time of year as “go time,” when farmers are combining fields, hauling crops to town and moving livestock from summer pastures to their winter homes. But this harvest season, they’re doing it with diesel prices more than $2.50 […]
NYNew York Post13 hours ago
An hour-by-hour guide on how to watch
Tuesday will finally end months of speculation and reveal which party will control Congress for the next two years, setting the tone for President Trump's lame-duck years in the White House.
FNFox News15 hours ago
Election Day 2026 polls open with House and Senate control at stake
Election Day 2026 midterm elections determine control of the House and Senate as Republicans defend slim majorities. Donald Trump predicts a GOP hold despite polls favoring Democrats.
HCHartford Courant30 days ago
Trump heads to Nebraska, where his plan to import more beef has angered ranchers
By SEUNG MIN KIM WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump is taking his Republican midterm rescue mission to Nebraska on Monday, campaigning alongside GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts, who is running against an independent candidate backed by national Democrats. Trump is headed to Grand Island, Nebraska, located in the solidly conservative south-central part of the state. […]
RSRolling Stone1 month ago
Democratic Majority Will Come Down to Moderates Winning in Midterms
If Democrats win a majority in the 2026 midterms, it will be due to a motley crew of military veterans, pastors, former Republicans, and independents.
KIKalispell Inter Lake2 months ago
Polling puts Flint, Forstag in dead heat for US House seat
Aaron Flint and Sam Forstag appear to be in a dead heat for Montana’s Western District House race, according to a Montana Free Press-Rutgers Eagleton poll.
MMassLive2 months ago
Gavin Newsom met with scrutiny over 2028 decision: 'I don't believe it'
He said he wouldn't challenge this top Democrat.
Latest Polls
Polling Average
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
46.1%
44.2%
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
Campaign Fundraising
Total RaisedCash on Hand
Jun 30, 2026$2M
$1.5M
$1M
$500K
$0
S. Forstag
A. Flint
Candidate
Total Raised
Cash on Hand
Burn Rate (per month)
Last report
S. ForstagSam Forstag$1.38MContrib: $1.36M
$550.1KSpent: $832.8K
$46.3KLast period: $678.5K
JULY QUARTERLY · Jun 30, 2026
A. FlintAaron Flint$1.30MContrib: $1.15M
$502.2KSpent: $801.2K
$44.5KLast period: $506.9K
TERMINATION REPORT · Jun 30, 2026
Source: FEC
Saved Kalshi settlement results
These are market contract results, not election calls or vote totals. News, polls, prices and charts remain as captured.
Observation saved Nov 4, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC. No automatic updates.
MT-01 House winner?
No verified final result is available for this race.
Will Democratic win the House race for MT-1?
Settlement pending
Will Republican win the House race for MT-1?
Settlement pending