$20.1K
NOV 7, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
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Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Aug 8, 2026, 9:23 AM UTC.
source: Kalshi
Compare the candidates' live odds, polling averages and fundraising. Updated .
| Candidate | Live odds | Poll average | Funds raised |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron FlintRepublican | 61% | 46.0% | $1.30M |
| Sam ForstagDemocratic | 39% | 43.5% | $1.38M |
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
Aaron Flint has won the Republican primary in Montana’s 1st District, settling the GOP nomination. Separate reporting says Republican fundraising is trailing Bodnar and Forstag, while Democrats have prioritized MT-01 and are backing the race with resources. Flint’s primary win clarifies the GOP field, but the fundraising report and Democratic prioritization could keep the race competitive. The overall effect is mixed, with some support for Democrats and some uncertainty about Republican strength.
Embattled GOP Rep. Max Miller is facing growing calls from Senate Republicans to resign or end his reelection bid – but has so far vowed to remain in the race as he denies abuse allegations from his ex-wife.
New York’s insurgents are getting the headlines. But in swing districts, the establishment is getting its way.
Super PACs linked to OpenAI and Anthropic have poured more than $37 million into 2026 congressional primaries, underscoring how aggressively leading artificial intelligence companies are seeking to influence the lawmakers who will shape future AI regulation.
Montana voters will select nominees in Tuesday’s state primary to replace two prominent Republican incumbents: U.S. Sen. Steve Daines and U.S. Rep. Ryan Zinke.
A Journal columnist criticizes Deb Haaland’s gubernatorial campaign for sharing detailed property information about rival Sam Bregman’s family, raising questions about ethics, judgment and leadership in the high-stakes New Mexico governor primary.
The AI political spending boom comes as emerging technology companies have become increasingly “comfortable with using their power to achieve a political goal,” said a former Google public policy executive.
Newsom has spent 1 in 5 days traveling outside California in second term
Registering as a candidate at the state Capitol marks the official kickoff of election season every two years and brings in candidates of all political stripes.
By adding MT-01 to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's priorities, candidates will have access to fundraising, trainings, strategic guidance and organization support.
Polling results and averages based on polls published between Apr 30, 2026 and Jun 25, 2026.
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
Notable endorsements from elected officials, organizations and public figures.
Donald Trump
Donald Trump reaffirmed his endorsement of Aaron Flint ahead of the Montana primary.
U.S. Chamber of Commerce
U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsed Aaron Flint for Montana's 1st Congressional District.
Lisa Story
Lisa Story endorsed Aaron Flint for Congress in Montana's 1st Congressional District.
Greg Gianforte
Greg Gianforte endorsed Aaron Flint for Montana’s 1st Congressional District.
Montana Conservation Voters
Montana Conservation Voters endorsed Sam Forstag for Montana's First Congressional District.
Steve Bullock
Steve Bullock endorsed Sam Forstag in Montana's 1st Congressional District race.
Our Revolution
Our Revolution endorsed Sam Forstag for Congress in Montana's 1st Congressional District.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorsed Sam Forstag ahead of the June 2 primary in Montana.
Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC
Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC endorsed Sam Forstag for Montana's 1st District primary.
Campaign finance totals for the 2026 cycle, including money raised, spent and cash on hand.
S. ForstagSam ForstagA. FlintAaron FlintSource: FEC
