$235.7K
NOV 3, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
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Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Sep 22, 2026, 7:28 AM UTC.
source: Kalshi
Compare the candidates' live odds, polling averages and fundraising. Updated .
| Candidate | Live odds | Poll average | Funds raised |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69% | 44.3% | $1.30M | |
| 30% | 43.3% | $1.38M |
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
The biggest recent development is the Supreme Court’s decision to leave mail voting rules in place ahead of the midterms. In MT-01, Republicans have nominated Aaron Flint, while Democrats are making the district a priority and backing their effort with national resources. The Supreme Court ruling may slightly reduce uncertainty around voting rules, but it does not directly change the MT-01 partisan outlook. Flint’s nomination and Democratic targeting keep the seat competitive, with little clear shift from these reports alone.
If Democrats win a majority in the 2026 midterms, it will be due to a motley crew of military veterans, pastors, former Republicans, and independents.
Aaron Flint and Sam Forstag appear to be in a dead heat for Montana’s Western District House race, according to a Montana Free Press-Rutgers Eagleton poll.
He said he wouldn't challenge this top Democrat.
Top Democrats across the country are privately warning that they do not have enough cash in the November midterm battle to capitalize on what could be their party’s best political environment in over a decade and are at serious risk of leaving winnable seats on the table.
Embattled GOP Rep. Max Miller is facing growing calls from Senate Republicans to resign or end his reelection bid – but has so far vowed to remain in the race as he denies abuse allegations from his ex-wife.
New York’s insurgents are getting the headlines. But in swing districts, the establishment is getting its way.
Super PACs linked to OpenAI and Anthropic have poured more than $37 million into 2026 congressional primaries, underscoring how aggressively leading artificial intelligence companies are seeking to influence the lawmakers who will shape future AI regulation.
Montana voters will select nominees in Tuesday’s state primary to replace two prominent Republican incumbents: U.S. Sen. Steve Daines and U.S. Rep. Ryan Zinke.
A Journal columnist criticizes Deb Haaland’s gubernatorial campaign for sharing detailed property information about rival Sam Bregman’s family, raising questions about ethics, judgment and leadership in the high-stakes New Mexico governor primary.
Polling results and averages based on polls published between Apr 30, 2026 and Sep 10, 2026.
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
Campaign finance totals for the 2026 cycle, including money raised, spent and cash on hand.
S. ForstagSam ForstagA. FlintAaron FlintSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
