$11.7K
NOV 3, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
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Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Oct 3, 2026, 7:58 PM UTC.
source: Kalshi
Compare the candidates' live odds, polling averages and fundraising. Updated .
| Candidate | Live odds | Poll average | Funds raised |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81% | 42.7% | $3.79M | |
| 19% | 47.0% | $798.2K |
Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.
Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.
The biggest update is a new poll showing Chris Jones narrowly ahead of French Hill, though still within the margin of error. Jones is also getting a high-profile campaign stop from Pete Buttigieg and has been attacking Hill over WIC funding cuts. A recent Democratic special-election win in Arkansas has added to the sense of a potentially tighter race. The poll and Buttigieg visit may modestly improve Democratic sentiment, but the race still looks close and the poll is within the margin of error. Overall uncertainty remains high.
Democratic candidates in red states are sharing their faith to connect with voters, sparking intense debates over theology.
A poll has put Chris Jones 3% points ahead of French Hill.
It is frustrating to come across electoral analysts talking about the midterm elections using the kinds of traditional concepts and theories I spent a career teaching, but which have now, in the age of Donald Trump, become increasingly irrelevant.
WASHINGTON -- Mental health advocate James Russell III won Arkansas' 4th Congressional District Democratic primary on Tuesday, putting him in a matchup this fall against Republican incumbent Bruce Westerman.
Chris Jones says vote to cut WIC program shows French Hill's priorities are wrong.
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
Pete Buttigieg, former U.S. secretary of transportation and 2020 Democratic presidential candidate, will appear in Little Rock next week to campaign for Chris Jones, who is running for Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District.
Four US Navy sailors aboard the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower aircraft carrier were injured on Monday evening when an aircraft suffered a “mishap” while trying
A new ad by Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders put white men at the center of her state welfare work requirement policy.
The Arkansas Democrats’ flip of a Republican-held state House race in a special election last week gave Democrats something to crow about in Trump territory.
Polling results and averages based on polls published between Apr 28, 2026 and Aug 13, 2026.
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
Campaign finance totals for the 2026 cycle, including money raised, spent and cash on hand.
F. HillFrench HillC. JonesChris JonesSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
