$13.7K
JUN 3, 2026
Candidate standings
Live market pricing for the leading candidates in this election.
Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Fresh reporting confirms the June 2 primary and August 4 special-election runoff timeline while spotlighting Mike McGuire’s late entry, keeping the race newsy as Gallagher’s market has already repriced sharply and traders weigh whether McGuire can sustain his recent rise.
Gallagher’s win probability has fallen from 95% to 55% while Mike McGuire has risen to 16%, making the race materially less of a lock and more tradable into the June 2 primary. Recent reporting keeps McGuire in the frame, but the main signal is the abrupt market reset rather than a new endorsement or filing development.
Candidates in California’s 1st District debated key local issues in Chico. Recent coverage says the redrawn district now leans Democratic and that Mike McGuire is seen as the strongest candidate. California’s approved map has already reshaped the race ahead of the 2026 primary. The redrawn map and Democratic lean appear to favor McGuire and other Democrats. The debate adds visibility, but the overall market signal looks modestly Democratic.
The candidates for California's First Congressional District — Democrat Audrey Denney, State Assemblyman James Gallagher and State Sen. Mike McGuire — appealed to voters in a Sunday night debate at the Chico Women's Club.
Mike McGuire is an experienced lawmaker who delivers for rural constituents.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Tuesday set the date for a special election to fill Eric Swalwell's congressional seat after his resignation following multiple sexual assault allegations.
U.S Sen. Jeff Merkley has served in the U.S. Senate since 2008. Seven Republicans are seeking the opportunity to unseat him.
Seven states have adopted new maps since last summer, as the simmering redistricting war between Democrats and Republicans continues.
Rather than waning, a national redistricting battle that began 10 months ago has intensified — inflamed by a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling that weakened the federal Voting Rights Act.
The Utah congressional candidate discussed healthcare, immigration, Trump impeachment and why he identifies more with FDR than democratic socialism.
If Republicans break up the 6th District, those voters have to go somewhere. “Somewhere” means safe GOP districts, which would suddenly get more Democratic voters, more competition, more scrutiny.
With the Voting Rights Act gutted, Democrats face tough decisions about preserving racial representation.
Jill LaMalfa
Jill LaMalfa endorsed James Gallagher for the 2026 special election campaign to replace Doug LaMalfa.
M. McGuireMike McGuireJ. GallagherJames Gallagher
K. WilsonKyle WilsonSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
