$9.3K
NOV 3, 2027Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
Deposit $20, get $50 on Polymarket
Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Conrad Cable is now leading the LA-04 Democratic nominee race with 7.7% and a 4.7-point edge.
Matt Gromlich's odds fell below the prior low of 33% in the Louisiana Democratic nominee race for LA-04.
Thomas Massie lost the Kentucky 4th District Republican primary by nearly 10 points, ending his reelection bid. Prediction markets had already been drifting against him before Election Day. The result highlights the strength of Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein. This is a clear negative signal for Massie and a boost for Trump-backed challengers in similar primaries. It may slightly reinforce market confidence in anti-incumbent outcomes where Trump is involved.
Trump touted a 37-0 record in Tuesday's GOP primaries, including Ed Gallrein's ouster of Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky's closely watched congressional race.
By JONATHAN J. COOPER and STEVE PEOPLES WASHINGTON (AP) — Is there a future in politics for Republicans who cross President Donald Trump? The signs this year suggest no, and Trump has convinced his voters to defeat his adversaries again and again. The next test of the president’s power to extract retribution is on Tuesday, […]
Here are takeaways from primaries in Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon and Pennsylvania.
President Donald Trump has scored another win against a Republican rival, purging Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky’s primary and knocking out one of his most outspoken critics on Capitol Hill. Massie has been a particularly difficult thorn in Trump’s side. He pushed for the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files, opposed the war with Iran and voted against Trump’s signature tax legislation last year. He lost Tuesday to Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein following the most expensive U.S. House primary in history. He had tried to convince Republicans that they could support both himself and Trump at the same time, a proposition that has been tried unsuccessfully in other races around the country.
By The Associated Press There are primary elections Tuesday in Kentucky, Alabama, Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Pennsylvania. These contests will be a further test of President Donald Trump’s grip on Republican voters. When can we expect to see vote results tonight Kentucky will release the first results of the night. In the 2024 primaries, the […]
The Kentucky Republican's chances of winning his primary against a Trump-backed challenger have slipped sharply on prediction markets.
President Donald Trump and allies target Sen. Bill Cassidy and Rep. Thomas Massie in upcoming GOP primaries after Trump-backed challengers won five Indiana state Senate races.
So far, his chosen candidates in several May primaries are struggling to dominate their fields.
M. GromlichMatt GromlichC. CableConrad CableSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
