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High Impact19d

Kevin Steele

69%

Kevin Steele is now leading with 69% odds and is ahead by 39.0 points.

ActivePrimary ElectionRepublican

Who will win the 2026 Florida District 14 US House Republican Primary?

Aug 19, 2026, 6:59am GMT+3, in 71 daysLast updated: Jun 9, 2026, 5:53 PM UTC

FL-14 Republican nominee?

$9.8K

AUG 19, 2026

Primary Election

Party selects its nominee.

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OddsCurrent Odds

Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.

Total volume

$9.8K

24h volume

M. Marcel63%

K. Steele48%

M. Beltran27%

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source: Kalshi

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August

TUE 18

Florida 2026 primary

November

TUE 3

Florida 2026 general election

Latest Insights

FL-14 Republican nominee?

19dHigh Impact

Kevin Steele is now leading with 69% odds and is ahead by 39.0 points.

69%

FL-14 Republican nominee?

19dHigh Impact

Kevin Steele’s Republican nominee odds for FL-14 jumped from 20% to 69% in the last hour, and fresh reporting says he has entered the race and may self-fund heavily. That makes him the clear market leader in a crowded GOP field and gives traders a new front-runner to reprice.

69%49%

FL-14 Republican nominee?

Michael Marcel is now leading with 63% odds and has a 15.0-point edge over the prior leader.

63%

News

AINews Summary

Mike Beltran is showing early strength in a Florida 14 GOP primary poll, with Trump support helping his standing. Separately, Supreme Court rulings on voting rights and redistricting could reshape 2026 maps in some states, though the direct impact on this nomination race is unclear. Beltran appears to have an early edge in the GOP field, which may lift his nomination odds. Broader redistricting rulings add some uncertainty to the wider 2026 House landscape, but the direct effect on this nomination market looks limited.

Articles

BNBreitbart News Network8 days ago

14 More Likely to Support a Candidate Who Backed Trump

Residents in Florida's Congressional District 14 are more likely to support a candidate – namely, former Florida House of Representatives member Mike Beltran (R) – upon hearing the candidate maintains unwavering support for President Donald Trump.

SSlate5 days ago

One weird trick Sam Alito used to kill voting rights.

The current Supreme Court seems completely comfortable that we might return to the days in which states create winner-take-all congressional delegations.

AABC17News.com7 days ago

Supreme Court allows Alabama to use GOP-friendly map for midterms, cutting seat held by Black Democrat

By John Fritze, CNN (CNN) — The Supreme Court on Tuesday allowed Alabama to use a congressional map that will benefit Republicans in this year’s midterm elections, permitting the state to ditch one of two House districts represented by a Black member of Congress who is also a Democrat. The court dealt with the case

Fundraising

Total RaisedCash on Hand

Mar 31, 2026

$100K

$75K

$50K

$25K

D. Weldon

R. Rochford

S. Williams

G. Soriano

Candidate

Total Raised

Cash on Hand

Burn Rate (per month)

Last report

D. WeldonDan Weldon

$76.6KContrib: $76.6K

$67.1KSpent: $9.6K

$637Last period: $76.6K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

R. RochfordRocky Rochford

$62.4KContrib: $62.4K

$21.1KSpent: $43.4K

$2.9KLast period: $39.4K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

S. WilliamsShay Williams

$18.4KContrib: $6.4K

$10.7KSpent: $7.7K

$512Last period: $6.4K

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

G. SorianoGavriel Soriano

$1.7KContrib: $0

$25Spent: $1.6K

$109Last period: $0

APRIL QUARTERLY · Mar 31, 2026

Source: FEC

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We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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Who will win the 2026 Florida District 14 US House Republican Primary?

FL-14 Republican nominee?

OddsCurrent Odds

Upcoming Events

Latest Insights

FL-14 Republican nominee?

FL-14 Republican nominee?

FL-14 Republican nominee?

News

14 More Likely to Support a Candidate Who Backed Trump

One weird trick Sam Alito used to kill voting rights.

Supreme Court allows Alabama to use GOP-friendly map for midterms, cutting seat held by Black Democrat

Fundraising

Related races

Florida Republican Governor nominee?

FL-16 Republican nominee?

FL-06 Republican nominee?

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Upcoming Events

Latest Insights

FL-14 Republican nominee?

FL-14 Republican nominee?

FL-14 Republican nominee?

News

14 More Likely to Support a Candidate Who Backed Trump

One weird trick Sam Alito used to kill voting rights.

Supreme Court allows Alabama to use GOP-friendly map for midterms, cutting seat held by Black Democrat

Fundraising

Related races

Florida Republican Governor nominee?

FL-16 Republican nominee?

FL-06 Republican nominee?

Florida Governor winner?