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2026 Florida Republican House Primary Polls, Odds & Candidates

Name: 2026 Florida Republican House Primary Polls, Odds & Candidates — prediction market odds
Creator: kalshi

Primary Day: Aug 18, 2026Market closes: Aug 25, 8:00am ET (Aug 25, 12:00pm UTC)

FL-02 Republican nominee?

$167.1K

AUG 18, 2026

Primary Election

Party selects its nominee.

Deposit $20, get $50 on Polymarket

Race Snapshot

Compare the candidates' live odds, polling averages and fundraising. Updated Aug 13, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC.

Candidate	Live odds	Poll average	Funds raised
Austin Rogers	69%	19.7%	$1.01M
Keith Gross	22%	—	$12.33M
Evan Power	8%	—	$727.1K
Jim Norton	3%	9.2%	$411.8K
Luke Murphy	2%	6.8%	$280.4K
Nick Lewis	1%	1.0%	$95.0K
Audie Rowell	1%	2.4%	$117.9K
George Hensarling	1%	—	—

OddsLive Odds

Prediction market probabilities from Kalshi, updated as market prices change. Last updated Aug 13, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC.

Odds History

Total volume

$167.1K

24h volume

$7.2K

A. Rogers69%

K. Gross22%

E. Power8%

No chart data available yet.

source: Kalshi

Election Dates and Deadlines

Important voting dates, registration deadlines and prediction market closing times.

August

TUE 18

Florida 2026 primary

August

TUE 25

Prediction market closes

November

TUE 3

Florida 2026 general election

Latest Race Updates

Key developments affecting the candidates, polls and prediction market odds.

FL-02 Republican nominee?

20h

Rogers’ market odds jumped from 76% to 68% in the past hour, a major repricing that makes the Florida 2nd District Republican primary a live trader watchlist race.

68%8%

FL-02 Republican nominee?

Keith Gross's odds fell below the prior low of 35%, setting a new floor for the FL-02 Republican nominee race.

12%23%

FL-02 Republican nominee?

Keith Gross has raised $12,325,574.55 this cycle, while Austin Rogers leads the latest odds for the FL-02 Republican nominee race.

32%

Latest Election News

Recent reporting and announcements directly related to this race and its candidates.

AINews Summary

A Newsweek report says Democrats outraised Republicans in many competitive House races, including several in Florida. It also points to polling, Trump’s approval rating, and redistricting as factors shaping the 2026 outlook. The news is broad, not specific to this nomination contest. This is a broad warning sign for Republicans, but it does not name the Florida 2nd District nominee race. The effect on this market is indirect and mostly adds uncertainty.

Articles

PNPBS News2 months ago

Mamdani slate sweeps Democratic primaries in New York, ousts 2 incumbents from Congress

Top allies of New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani have defeated establishment-backed Democrats in New York's congressional primary elections.

NNNBC News2 months ago

Live updates: Candidates advance to midterm battles in California, Iowa, N.J. and 3 other states

Follow the latest Trump administration news and primary coverage as election races unfold in New Jersey, California, Iowa and other states.

PPPortland Press Herald3 months ago

Platner is outraising - and outspending - Susan Collins

Platner's heavy spending to date reflects the contentious Democratic primary with Gov. Janet Mills, who dropped out of the race April 30, and his likely November matchup with Collins.

AAL.com1 day ago

GOP’s fight to retake Alabama Congressional seat could be ‘the most watched’ race of 2026 election

Rhett Marques said his race against Shomari Figures will "be one of the most highly contested races in the country."

NNPR21 days ago

GOP redistricting has divided Black areas in these 6 states : NPR

These maps show that the redistricting battle President Trump initiated has so far had a particular impact on largely Black congressional districts in Republican-led states.

SSlate2 months ago

One weird trick Sam Alito used to kill voting rights.

The current Supreme Court seems completely comfortable that we might return to the days in which states create winner-take-all congressional delegations.

TPThe Philadelphia Inquirer3 days ago

Surprise nominees, candidate scandals scramble the battle for Congress

Antiestablishment fervor among grassroots organizers has made prognosticating harder for consultants and pollsters, and scandals are adding more volatility.

WCWDIV ClickOnDetroit8 days ago

House Democrats add 12 solidly Trump districts to their midterm election target list

House Democrats are adding a dozen Republican-held seats to their list of targets for the November midterms.

AAL.com6 days ago

Hawaii congressional candidate Kirill Basin arrested after viral Maui beach altercation

Hawaii congressional candidate Kirill Basin was arrested after a South Maui beach confrontation led to felony terroristic threatening charges.

Latest Polls

Polling results and averages based on polls published between Mar 9, 2026 and Aug 11, 2026.

Polling Average

25%20%15%10%5%0%

19.7%

9.2%

6.8%

A. Rogers

J. Norton

L. Murphy

A. Rowell

N. Lewis

Date (Start - End)	Spread	Rogers	Norton	Murphy	Rowell	Lewis
Polling Average	Rogers+10.5	19.7%	9.2%	6.8%	2.4%	1.0%
co/efficientAug 10 - 11	Rogers+12.0	25.0%	8.0%	13.0%	4.0%	–
Victory InsightsAug 4 - 6	Rogers+11.5	21.4%	9.9%	7.9%	1.0%	–
CygnalAug 3 - 3	Rogers+17.0	28.0%	11.0%	7.0%	4.0%	2.0%
Guidant Polling and StrategyJul 29 - 31	Rogers+13.0	21.0%	8.0%	5.0%	2.0%	0.0%
Guidant Polling and StrategyMar 9 - 11	Norton+6.0	3.0%	9.0%	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Candidate Endorsements

Evan Power7

Nick Lewis1

Florida League of Republican Voters

Audie Rowell7

Campaign Fundraising

Campaign finance totals for the 2026 cycle, including money raised, spent and cash on hand.

Total RaisedCash on Hand

Jul 29, 2026

$20M

$15M

$10M

$5M

K. Gross

A. Rogers

E. Power

J. Norton

L. Murphy

A. Rowell

N. Lewis

Candidate

Total Raised

Cash on Hand

Burn Rate (per month)

Last report

K. GrossKeith Gross

$12.33MContrib: $105.2K

$1.00MSpent: $11.33M

$596.3KLast period: $275

PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 29, 2026

A. RogersAustin Rogers

$1.01MContrib: $634.9K

$387.0KSpent: $623.2K

$32.8KLast period: $49.2K

PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 29, 2026

E. PowerEvan Power

$727.1KContrib: $565.0K

$262.9KSpent: $464.2K

$24.4KLast period: $105.6K

PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 29, 2026

J. NortonJim Norton

$411.8KContrib: $411.8K

$11.4KSpent: $400.4K

$21.1KLast period: $17.6K

PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 29, 2026

L. MurphyLuke Murphy

$280.4KContrib: $280.4K

$156.4KSpent: $124.1K

$6.5KLast period: $57.5K

PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 29, 2026

A. RowellAudie Rowell

$117.9KContrib: $117.9K

$27.2KSpent: $90.7K

$4.8KLast period: $7.4K

PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 29, 2026

N. LewisNick Lewis

$95.0KContrib: $1.0K

$970Spent: $94.0K

$4.9KLast period: $0

PRE-PRIMARY · Jul 29, 2026

Source: FEC

2026 Florida Republican House Primary Polls, Odds & Candidates

FL-02 Republican nominee?

Race Snapshot

OddsLive Odds

Odds History

Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Race Updates

FL-02 Republican nominee?

FL-02 Republican nominee?

FL-02 Republican nominee?

Latest Election News

Mamdani slate sweeps Democratic primaries in New York, ousts 2 incumbents from Congress

Live updates: Candidates advance to midterm battles in California, Iowa, N.J. and 3 other states

​Platner is outraising - and outspending - Susan Collins

GOP’s fight to retake Alabama Congressional seat could be ‘the most watched’ race of 2026 election

GOP redistricting has divided Black areas in these 6 states : NPR

One weird trick Sam Alito used to kill voting rights.

Surprise nominees, candidate scandals scramble the battle for Congress

House Democrats add 12 solidly Trump districts to their midterm election target list

Hawaii congressional candidate Kirill Basin arrested after viral Maui beach altercation

Latest Polls

Candidate Endorsements

Campaign Fundraising

Related Races

Florida Republican Governor nominee?

FL-25 Democratic nominee?

FL-06 Republican nominee?

FL-22 Republican nominee?

Race Snapshot

Election Dates and Deadlines

Latest Race Updates

FL-02 Republican nominee?

FL-02 Republican nominee?

FL-02 Republican nominee?

Latest Election News

Mamdani slate sweeps Democratic primaries in New York, ousts 2 incumbents from Congress

Live updates: Candidates advance to midterm battles in California, Iowa, N.J. and 3 other states

​Platner is outraising - and outspending - Susan Collins

GOP’s fight to retake Alabama Congressional seat could be ‘the most watched’ race of 2026 election

GOP redistricting has divided Black areas in these 6 states : NPR

One weird trick Sam Alito used to kill voting rights.

Surprise nominees, candidate scandals scramble the battle for Congress

House Democrats add 12 solidly Trump districts to their midterm election target list

Hawaii congressional candidate Kirill Basin arrested after viral Maui beach altercation

Latest Polls

Candidate Endorsements

Campaign Fundraising

Related Races

Florida Republican Governor nominee?

FL-25 Democratic nominee?

FL-06 Republican nominee?

FL-22 Republican nominee?

Platner is outraising - and outspending - Susan Collins

Platner is outraising - and outspending - Susan Collins